Chargers return to scene of wildcard loss to face Jaguars in pivotal AFC matchup

The Chargers can dramatically improve their playoff odds against Jacksonville

Nov 9, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers running back Kimani Vidal (30) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the fourth quarter of the game at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The Los Angeles Chargers will travel to Jacksonville this week to take on Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. This early window matchup may be the most consequential AFC showdown of the weekend for both teams' chances to make the playoffs.

The Chargers currently have an 82 percent chance to make the playoffs according to the Athletic's playoff simulator following their victory in week 10 over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Los Angeles' chances
jumps to 93 percent when using this model with a victory over the Jaguars. The Chargers chances drop to 69 percent with a loss.

The #Chargers playoff odds, currently at 82% via NYT, can jump to 93% with a win Sunday.

Jim Harbaugh's view?

“The answer is always going to come out to be the same: you have to take care of your own business. You can’t rely on another team.”

— Eric Smith (@Eric_L_Smith) November 12, 2025

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Contrarily, the Jaguars currently hold a 38 percent chance to make the playoffs following their loss to the Houston Texans. The result of this game will have a dramatic shift on the Jaguars chances for a playoff berth. If Jacksonville falls to the Chargers, their playoff chances drop to 23 percent but climb to 56 percent with a victory.

First Chargers-Jaguars meeting since 2022 playoffs

This game will be the first time the Chargers and Jaguars have faced each other since the fateful 2022 Wildcard round when the Chargers, lead by Brandon Staley, blew a 27-0 first half lead ultimately losing 31-30.

The 2025 Chargers are a new team that has experienced significant roster turnover. They are now lead by Jim Harbaugh and have a new defensive identity under defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. However, several key players from that game are still on the Chargers roster.

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Quarterback Justin Herbert, safety Derwin James, edge rusher Khalil Mack and wide receiver Keenan Allen were all key figures in that playoff loss. It will be worth monitoring this week of practice if that game has left any imprint or provided any motivation for the Chargers heading into Jacksonville.

Jacksonville appears to be well aware of the threat the Chargers are bringing into their building on Sunday.

Liam Coen in today's press conference

"We can't be trying to play to not make a mistake at all... The message for Trev, and our conversation, is to just go cut it loose, let it rip and see what happens"

Gonna need to be aggressive to have a chance against the Chargers🤞 pic.twitter.com/k55cjndYIj

— SleeperJaguars (@SleeperJaguars) November 12, 2025

The Chargers will revisit the scene of that fateful wildcard loss. They will be seeking their revenge and diminish the Jaguars playoff chances at the same time.

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