Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills, AFC Wild Card Playoffs: Favored Bills Host First Playoff Game Since 1996
As any member of the Bills Mafia fan club can attest, it’s been too long for the Buffalo Bills to be at home in Orchard Park, N.Y., for the AFC playoffs.
So much has happened since 1996, when the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars rallied from a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter for a 30-27 win to end the Bills’ season. That home venue has had three name changes since — from Rich Stadium to Ralph Wilson Stadium to New Era Field to today’s Bills Stadium. Wilson died in 2014.
Frank Reich was still an NFL quarterback 25 years ago, but had moved on from a decade as a Bills backup and was with his third team, the New York Jets. Now Reich returns in his third year as Indianapolis Colts head coach to face the Bills on Saturday.
Reich, now 59, appreciates NFL history as much as any coach, but he’s not overly sentimental about coming back to Buffalo. He’s been there and done that enough times from the other sideline. His focus is on helping his seventh-seeded Colts (11-5) keep another streak going for the second-seeded Bills (13-3), who haven’t won a home playoff game since 1995.
The Colts are counting on an offense led by 39-year-old quarterback Philip Rivers that recently has revolved around 21-year-old rookie running back Jonathan Taylor, whose 1,169 rushing yards ranked third in the NFL. And an improved Colts defense which is staunch against the run but struggles to defend the pass will be tasked with trying to limit emerging Bills quarterback Josh Allen, whose breakthrough third season has placed him among the position’s best and in the NFL MVP conversation.
Bills coach Sean McDermott isn’t shy about turning Allen loose, especially when throwing to the NFL’s best receiver in Stefon Diggs, who led the league with 127 receptions for 1,535 yards. The Bills had a game where they passed on 19 consecutive plays. The Bills’ 31.3-point average ranked second.
The challenge is undoubtedly difficult for the Colts, who needed a Week 17 win and help that came from the Bills knocking the Miami Dolphins out of the playoffs. The Bills have won nine of 10 games, which as Reich reminded this week, makes the Colts' opponent probably one of the NFL’s hottest teams.
This is the first postseason for having an additional playoff team in each conference, the round of games dubbed Super Wild Card Weekend. Reich asserted the Colts can make history as the first seventh-seeded team to ever win a Super Bowl. He’s convinced the Colts, who are touchdown underdogs, have what it takes to accomplish the unprecedented.
The playoff path begins in Buffalo, where 6,700 fans will be allowed to attend. Question is, will that path continue on or end there for the visitors?
Quarterback Philip Rivers signals for a play in a road win at Las Vegas.
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Here’s all you need to know about Colts-Bills.
Broadcast Information
— Saturday, Jan. 9, at 1:05 p.m. (ET).
— Bills Stadium, Buffalo, N.Y.
— TV: CBS-4, Ian Eagle (play-by-play), Charles Davis (color), Evan Washburn (sideline).
— Radio: WFNI 1070-AM ESPN “The Fan,” WLHK 97.1 HANK-FM, Matt Taylor (play-by-play), Rick Venturi (color), Larra Overton (sideline), Bill Brooks (pregame/postgame analyst); Westwood One Sports, John Sadak (play-by-play), Ross Tucker (color analyst).
All-Time Series
— Bills lead, 37-32-1. Bills have won two of three since 2015.
— Last meeting, Week 7, 2018. Colts won, 37-5.
Coaches
Colts: head coach Frank Reich; offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni; defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, special teams Bubba Ventrone.
Bills: head coach Sean McDermott; offensive coordinator Brian Daboll; defensive coordinator/assistant head coach Leslie Frazier; special teams Heath Farwell.
Last Week
Colts won vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 28-14.
Bills won vs. Miami Dolphins, 56-26.
Injury Reports
Colts
— OUT: T Will Holden (ankle); CB Rock Ya-Sin (concussion).
— QUESTIONABLE: DT DeForest Buckner (ankle).
Bills
— QUESTIONABLE: WR Stefon Diggs (oblique); WR Cole Beasley (knee).
Rookie running back Jonathan Taylor has been the Colts' workhorse lately.
Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports
Storylines/Things to Watch
— Establish Jonathan Taylor: The emergence of Taylor began before his 253 rushing yards against the Jaguars set a single-game franchise record. In the last six games, he’s rushed for 741 yards on 119 carries (6.2 yards per carry) with seven touchdowns. For the season, he rushed for 1,169 yards and 11 TDs with 36 receptions for 299 yards and another score. The Bills rank 17th in rushing yards allowed per game and 26th in rushing yards allowed per attempt. It’s imperative that the Colts are able to run the ball to generate offense and keep the high-scoring Bills offense off the field. In addition to having the No. 2 scoring offense, the Bills are also third in time of possession, which means they put teams away by monopolizing the clock when ahead.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen is being mentioned as an NFL MVP candidate.
Mark Konezny/USA TODAY Sports
— Pressure Josh Allen: The third-year quarterback has enjoyed the kind of breakthrough season that merits NFL MVP consideration. He probably won’t win it because Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes were outstanding, too, but Allen passed for 4,544 yards and 37 TDs with just 10 interceptions. The 6-5, 237-pound passer can also run with eight TDs. The Colts struggled to contain Houston Texans dual-threat quarterback Deshaun Watson, who led the league in passing. Allen presents the same challenge. While Colts defensive tackle DeForest Buckner leads the defense with 9.5 sacks, the key to limiting Allen is shared by the edge rushers, who must provide enough pocket pressure to disrupt his timing and hopefully force mistakes. But they have to be careful because Allen, again, has proven himself capable of making plays with his feet.
— Second Half Struggle: The Colts have struggled in the second half on offense and defense in the last two months. They led 24-7 in the third quarter at Pittsburgh in Week 16 after an initial possession resulted in a field goal. Then the Colts didn’t score again and Ben Roethlisberger threw three TD passes in a 28-24 loss. The Colts had failed to score in the second half of Sunday’s win against the Jaguars, who were trailing just 20-14 midway through the fourth quarter, when Jonathan Taylor sealed the outcome with a 45-yard touchdown run. The Colts offense must be more consistent to have a chance. A Colts defense that was ranked No. 1 early in the season dropped to eighth after its inconsistency in the past nine games, including 20th in pass defense.
Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs led the NFL in receptions and receiving yards.
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Intriguing Matchups
— Colts CB Xavier Rhodes vs. Bills WR Stefon Diggs: Two former Minnesota Vikings teammates know each other well from going up against each other in practice. The problem is, the Colts don’t usually use their best cover guy to shadow the other team’s top receiver. The Thursday report that Diggs is questionable with an oblique injury might raise eyebrows, but expect him to play and be a factor. The NFL’s leading receiver is such a threat, Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus might need to change his coverage plan. That’s not to say Rhodes can shut down Diggs, but familiarity could help limit how much the Pro Bowl receiver impacts this game. If Diggs is lined up on other corners, the Colts will have to be mindful with help from a safety. He does it all, beating defenders deep and running quick routes for mid- and short-range gains.
— Colts RT Braden Smith vs. Bills LDE Jerry Hughes: Smith has improved so much in his third season, it shouldn’t be a surprise if general manager Chris Ballard gives him a contract extension although the tackle isn’t yet in a contract year. Smith didn’t allow a sack all season. He’s grown from a rookie who had to make the difficult transition from playing guard in college. He moves his feet better and isn’t as susceptible to the speed rush as in the previous two years. Hughes is a former Colts first-round draft pick who didn’t pan out after three seasons in Indy, but had back-to-back, 10-sack seasons in Buffalo to prove his NFL value. He’s had just 4.5 sacks in each of the past two seasons to boost his career total to 56. Smith needs to lock him down and not let him disrupt.
— Colts LT Jared Veldheer vs. Bills RDE Mario Addison: Added to the roster before the season finale, Veldheer did surprisingly well for not having played a game in a year. But that was against the Jaguars. Addison’s five sacks ties for the team lead on a defense that spreads out the pressure. The Bills are known to blitz and should be expected to overload Veldheer’s side. How Veldheer holds up against Addison as well as understanding his assignment during blitzes will be important. Veldheer is a 10th-year pro who proved he’s still in excellent shape as he didn’t miss a snap in Week 17 and practiced just twice. Addison has 60 sacks in a 10-year career as a decent role player.
Projected Weather
— Partly to mostly cloudy, high 36F, winds NW at 5-10 mph. Chance of precipitation just 5 percent.
Referee Assignment
— Head referee: Brad Allen (seventh year as an NFL referee). This is his third postseason assignment, having worked Wild Card and Divisional playoff games. Click here to see all referee assignments for Super Wild Card Weekend.
Betting Lines
— Favorite: Bills (-6.5).
— Over/Under: 51.
Safety Khari Willis has been cleared to play by concussion protocol.
Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports
2020 Season Leaders
Colts
— Passing: QB Philip Rivers (4,169 yards).
— Rushing: RB Jonathan Taylor (1,169 yards).
— Receiving: WR T.Y. Hilton (762 yards).
— Touchdowns: Taylor (12).
— Tackles: LB Darius Leonard (132).
— Sacks: DE DT DeForest Buckner (9.5).
— Interceptions: CB Kenny Moore II (4).
Bills
— Passing: QB Josh Allen (4,544 yards).
— Rushing: RB Devin Singletary (687 yards).
— Receiving: WR Stefon Diggs (1,535 yards).
— Touchdowns: Allen, Diggs (8).
— Tackles: LB Tremaine Edmunds (119).
— Sacks: DE Mario Addison, LB A.J. Klein (5).
— Interceptions: CB Tre’Davious White (3).
Comparing 2020 Stats
Colts
— Total offense: 10th (378.1 YPG).
— Scoring: 9th (28.2 PPG).
— Passing offense: 11th (253.3 YPG).
— Sacks allowed: T2nd (21).
— Rushing offense: 11th (124.8 YPG).
— Third-down offense: 22nd (39.59%).
— Red-zone offense: T17th (58.33%).
— Total defense: 8th (332.1 YPG).
— Scoring defense: T10th (22.6 PPG).
— Passing defense: 20th (241.6 YPG).
— Sacks: T12th (40).
— Rushing defense: 2nd (90.5 YPG).
— Third-down defense: 19th (42.36%).
— Red-zone defense: 15th (61.54%).
— Time of possession: 9th (31:01).
— Turnover differential: 2nd (+10).
Bills
— Total offense: T2nd (396.4 YPG).
— Scoring: 2nd (31.3 PPG).
— Passing offense: 3rd (288.8 YPG).
— Sacks allowed: 9th (27).
— Rushing offense: 20th (107.7 YPG).
— Third-down offense: 1st (49.73%).
— Red-zone offense: 13th (61.76%).
— Total defense: 14th (352.5 YPG).
— Scoring defense: 16th (23.4 PPG).
— Passing defense: 13th (232.9 YPG).
— Sacks: T15th (38).
— Rushing defense: 17th (119.6 YPG).
— Third-down defense: 13th (39.79%).
— Red-zone defense: 28th (65.52%).
— Time of possession: 3rd (31:45).
— Turnover differential: T10th (+4).
Philip Rivers calls an audible in a Week 16 game at Pittsburgh.
Charles LeClaire/USA TODAY Sports
Colts Notes
— The Colts last appeared in the playoffs as a Wild-Card qualifier after the 2018 regular season, when they defeated the AFC South champion Houston Texans on the road before losing at Kansas City in the AFC Divisional second round. That postseason was the Colts’ Frank Reich’s first as a head coach, although he won a Super Bowl ring as the Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator in the 2017 postseason. His Colts coaching record is 29-21, counting the playoffs.
— QB Philip Rivers has a 5-6 record in playoff games. He’s appeared in the playoffs in seven of his 15 years as a starter, advancing as far as one AFC title game (loss at New England). In his last two appearances in 2018 and 2013, he led the Chargers to Wild Card wins on the road in the first round before losing on the road in the AFC Divisional second round.
— LB Darius Leonard was named AFC Defensive Player of the Week on Wednesday after he had 10 tackles, one sack, two passes defended, and one forced fumble in Week 17. Leonard is the sixth Colts player to earn Player of the Week honors this season, joining cornerback Xavier Rhodes, linebacker E.J. Speed, kicker Rodrigo Blankenship, cornerback Kenny Moore II, and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner.
Click Before The Game
Indianapolis Colts Linebacker Darius Leonard: ‘Everybody is Counting Us Out’
ColtsSpeak: David Bryant Talks Playoffs
Why Colts’ Jonathan Taylor is Special
Will Playoffs Reiterate What Colts Should Decide on Re-Signing QB Philip Rivers?
