Odds Revealed for Colts' Gardner Minshew's Next Team
The Indianapolis Colts went through the wringer in 2023 with injuries. A few notable key players like right tackle Braden Smith (knee), running back Jonathan Taylor (ankle), cornerback JuJu Brents (quad), and tight end Jelani Woods (hamstring) all struggled with setbacks.
There are other names that could be listed, especially the rookies. However, no injury affected Indianapolis and Shane Steichen's offense like the season-ending injury for quarterback Anthony Richardson (shoulder). After suffering an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder in week five against the Tennessee Titans, Richardson's campaign ended.
The injury resulted in only four total games played for his inaugural year. But backup passers are more valuable than given credit for in the NFL. Enter arguably one of the best insurance policies at field general, Gardner Minshew. The Colts snagged Minshew for cheap in the 2023 off-season, signing him to a one-year, $3.5 million deal.
Given that former Colts QB Jacoby Brissett signed a one-year, $8 million deal with the Washington Commanders (per Spotrac), it shows that Minshew's deal was a steal. Despite playing well enough and earning his first career Pro Bowl nomination, Minshew potentially won't don the Colts uniform again in 2024 since he's a free agent.
Indiana Bets has released who they believe have the best odds to retain or sign Minshew in the Gardner Minshew Next Team Odds; Potential Free Agency Destinations article.
It's a bit difficult to predict where Minshew could go. Even though he finished well for a backup and almost made the playoffs, Minshew isn't at the consistent starter-level tier either. But if the veteran is seen through spectating eyes as a backup passer, his value is better since he is one of the best in the league.
While the Colts lead the ranks with +300 odds, it's a higher probability he goes elsewhere. It wouldn't be because he didn't perform well on the field. Minshew finished 2023 with some of his best career numbers. The former sixth-round selection had 3,305 passing yards on 305 completions (both career bests) and 18 all-purpose touchdowns (15 passing and three rushing) in 13 starts.
The reason Chris Ballard wouldn't keep Minshew is because he'll be too expensive. Spotrac currently has Minshew's market value at $5.3 million annually. However, I believe it will be around $7 million with Minshew's performance and Pro Bowl nomination.
Even though Minshew did great with the circumstances, the Colts could still grab players like Tyrod Taylor or Tyler Huntley to backup Richardson instead. While Minshew knows Steichen's offense perfectly, he doesn't have a similar skillset to Richardson. The pair of Taylor and Huntley do possess that bundle of talents.
Steichen could still mold either of these passers to the offense since both are athletic and veterans. Don't be surprised if the Colts go this direction instead.
To highlight the potential price, Spotrac has Taylor's market value at $3.3 million annually. This is far better for containing cap space than keeping Minshew. It's something to monitor, as Minshew could get the best payday he's ever received.
Minshew is respected league-wide and works well with Steichen. However, it's all about retaining the more valuable in-house free agents like cornerback Kenny Moore II, defensive tackle Grover Stewart, and safety Julian Blackmon. Don't expect Minshew to be retained by Indianapolis for 2024.
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