Kelly: Why Not Tagging Christian Wilkins Was The Right Business Decision
Christian Wilkins belongs to the NFL streets now.
He's one of the league's top unrestricted free agents, a polished, proven, productive standout defensive tackle, who in a week likely will sign a multi-year contract with the highest bidder.
That's a win for Wilkins and his agent, who bet on themselves by having him play on the fifth-year option last season instead of accepting what they felt was a below-market offer from the Miami Dolphins, and it's potentially a loss for South Florida's NFL franchise.
But that doesn't mean not using the franchise or transition tag on Wilkins wasn't the right thing to do from a business standpoint.
If you disagree with that, ask yourself this question: What can $18-22 million in cap space purchase on the free agent market?
Cap space brings options
That’s the best way to justify, explain, and rationalize why the Dolphins didn’t use the franchise or transition tag to retain one of the team’s top talents.
Keep in mind how handcuffed Miami’s finances are right now, with a $19 million deficit in cap space that needs to be cleared by March 13. If Miami had used a tag on Wilkins, that deficit would have risen to at least $37.5 million.
And that doesn't even factor in the $10-15 million in cap space Miami needs to re-sign some of the team's own free agents, or to add players from other teams, like tight end Jonnu Smith, who Miami hosted on a free agent visit Tuesday.
While exposing Wilkins to the open market clearly is a dangerous proposition considering he's viewed as a foundational piece for Miami, the $22.1 million price for the franchise tag, or the $18.5 million price for the transition tag (which would have allowed Miami to match any offer made) would have handcuffed the team financially because the minute the tag is used, all of that money is accounted for.
What can $18 million in cap space buy?
Understand that $18-22 million in cap space could be used on four to five free agents, players re-signed and newcomers added, and that includes Wilkins.
The Dolphins likely will bid on Wilkins, and if he gets something in the neighborhood of the five-year, $105 million deal that Quinnen Williams got from the New York Jets last offseason, which guaranteed the Pro Bowl defensive tackle $47.8 million, that deal would account for roughly $6.5 million in cap space in year one (2024).
That would give Miami an additional $11-15 million to play with to retool the roster or re-sign key veterans like guard Robert Hunt, who likely will command a salary in the $10 million a season range. If we extrapolate Hunt's hypothetical deal out by making it a multi-year contract that features a $10-15 million signing bonus, then we’re talking a year one cap charge of $4-6 million.
So that's Wilkins and Hunt for half of the franchise tag.
And that still leaves the Dolphins enough cap space to add three to four more lower-tier signees, players like safeties DeShon Elliott ($1.7 million last year) and Brandon Jones, and offensive linemen Isaiah Wynn and Kendall Lamm, who all likely will garner contracts in the $2-3 million a year salary range.
If the Dolphins had tagged Wilkins, it likely would have softened his free agent market a bit. But the truth is that the tag would have handcuffed the franchise during this period of free agent shopping.
Miami's decision makers decided that wasn’t worth purging the roster, or restructuring contracts more than they already have to.
Not tagging Wilkins raises the odds he'll leave if the Dolphins aren't competitive bidders, and come correct with a strong offer.
But it also gives the Dolphins the freedom to pursue other big-ticket free agents and potentially enhance the roster in other areas.
