Bet Tom Brady to Win MVP at Plus Odds While You Still Can

NFL MVP odds are at their best right now for the Tampa Buccaneers quarterback. Get your gambling picks in for the most valuable player NOW.

Author:
Fischer Smith
Publish date:
Dec 8, 2021 9:49 AM EST

Tom Brady to win MVP (+175 on DraftKings)

NFL MVP odds are at their best right now for the Tampa Buccaneers quarterback. Get your gambling picks in for the most valuable player NOW.

The MVP race has begun to look clear as we enter the last weeks of the regular season. DraftKings has just three MVP candidates listed at odds under +1000, and Tom Brady is the favorite at +175. Aaron Rodgers and Kyler Murray are seen as the only legitimate threats to Brady, with their MVP odds at +600 and +750, respectively. Murray, however, has missed three games and seems like a long shot to win the award. 2021's Most Valuable Player will likely end up being Brady or Rodgers, who have navigated their teams through several key injuries to the top of their divisions at 9-3.

Entering week 14, Brady leads the NFL in passing yards with 3,771 and passing touchdowns with 34. Brady is also second in the league to Justin Herbert in total adjusted QBR (66.2). Rodgers is just 12th in the league in passing yards with 2,878. Rodgers has only four interceptions to Brady's nine, but he also has thrown 11 fewer touchdown passes than Brady with 23 on the season.

Besides this week's matchup with Buffalo, Tampa Bay does not have one game the rest of the season against an opponent with a record over .500. The Packers will have a very tough task next week on the road in Baltimore and will have to face a couple of teams in the thick of the playoff race in the Vikings and Browns. Tampa Bay is at home and favored by 3.5 points in the Buffalo matchup this week. As long as he can take care of the Bills, it is very plausible that Brady runs the table and leads Tampa Bay to a 14-3 record with their soft schedule. It is also possible that the Packers drop a couple of games down the stretch.

Voter fatigue is also an important phenomenon to note here. Nobody has won the NFL MVP award in consecutive seasons since Peyton Manning did so in 2008 and 2009, and it has only been done three other times in NFL history - by Brett Favre, Joe Montana, and Jim Brown. Rodgers was last year's MVP, and he is going to have to finish the season with substantially better numbers than Brady if he is going to win it again and will probably need to wind up with a better record as well.

Currently, Brady has a significant edge on Rodgers in passing touchdowns and passing yards. Brady also currently has an advantage over Rodgers in total adjusted QBR - Rodgers is fifth in the league at 65.2. Although Rodgers has thrown five fewer interceptions, Brady's numbers are better overall. Rodgers will have to blow Brady out of the water from a numbers standpoint over these last five weeks if he is going to beat him out for back-to-back MVP awards. Given Brady's easy schedule, it is very hard to see that happening. Brady has a good chance to finish with the better record with that schedule.

Everyone has their own opinion on the matter, but Aaron Rodgers is not the most admired man by the media for lying about his vaccine status. That can and likely will factor into the MVP vote, which is decided by NFL media members. Rodgers also missed a game which is another factor. With the way the statistics and remaining schedules of the two future Hall of Famers stack up right now, it is very difficult to see Aaron Rodgers beating out Tom Brady for a rare consecutive MVP award. If Brady beats the Bills this week, he all but locks it up. +175 seems like incredible value here. Back Tom Brady to win his fourth NFL MVP award while it still has value.

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