College Football Week 0 Bets To Take

What college football games should you be betting on this weekend?

Author:
Brandon Coyle
Publish date:
Aug 27, 2021 9:21 AM EDT

It’s finally here! We have college football back...almost. Week 0 is a tease with only a couple headline games on Saturday’s slate. However, we’re starting on time even with COVID-19 still around and making things difficult for our football programs. With a new season of college football comes a fresh start to betting on college football. All the bad beats and missed overs are erased from last season. Everyone starts with a great feeling at 0-0.

This weekend we only have two games with lines that I like. Once the season gets fully in gear I’ll try and give more, but quality over quantity is huge for college football betting. The colossal slate can be scary, remember you don’t have to bet on every line. The first game of the day is a Big Ten kickoff with Nebraska at Illinois.

Nebraska @ Illinois (Nebraska -7) O/U 54.5

Nebraska is coming off a disappointing season in many people’s eyes. Scott Frost came in with huge expectations and it seems to have just not materialized into wins just yet. When looking at the offense, the Cornhuskers run the ball at an extremely high clip, ranking 31st in the nation in rushers per game and 28th in yards per attempt. They’re an efficient, run-heavy offense ranking 2nd in the Big Ten as a rushing offense. This Nebraska team is excellent on the ground but lacked scoring all year long, leading to disappointing losses, including one to Illinois at home.

On the other side, Illinois is in a new era under Head Coach Bret Bielema. The Lovie Smith tenure ended and didn’t show much promise throughout his time there. Bielema will look to establish a strong running style and stout defense to keep them in games. However, this team is weak throughout the roster. In 2020, Illinois’ defense ranked dead last in the Big Ten and 113th in the country giving up 460+ yards per game. This team lost multiple offensive weapons on the outside, but the focus will be on the ground under Bielema. But, if they start off, one-dimensional defenses will adjust quickly.

Now when looking at this matchup, Nebraska looks to have a clear advantage. Nebraska fell victim to unlucky fumbles and ranked 122nd in the nation in turnover margin. They had a lack of scoring in 2020, but with this rushing attack, there will be positive regression. This is a make-or-break season for Scott Frost and a revenge game for their loss at home last season. In year two of the Matt Lubick offense, Nebraska will iron out these kinks. Against the spread, Illinois was 3-5 last season and has been 1-5 in their first game the previous six seasons. It’ll take this new-look Illinois team a week or two to get comfortable. This line has moved from -9 to -7 on some books due to money being on Illinois’ side. VegasInsider has public money at 65% on Illinois as of Wednesday night. I’m happy to fade the public here and take Nebraska -7 (-7.5).

Pick: Nebraska -7 (-7.5)

Hawaii @ UCLA (UCLA -17.5) O/U 68.5

The Rainbow Warriors are entering year two under Todd Graham. Hawaii finished 5-4 on the year and 4-4 in the Mountain West. A team known for its offense wasn’t as high-flying as they have been in the past. Only averaging 26 points per game, this offense had up and down moments. Throwing the ball over 60% of the time, the Rainbow Warriors surprisingly were efficient on the ground ranking 27th in efficiency according to PFF. On the other side of the ball, the defense was uneven. Lacking run defense, Hawaii ranked outside the top 100 in opponents' yards per rush and yards per game. Their secondary was pretty solid, keeping opponents under 200 yards per game and their completion percentage under 55%.

For the UCLA Bruins, there’s a lot of optimism around the program this year. This is Chip Kelly’s 4th season, and he may be on the hot seat in the public’s eyes. The Bruins’ offense could be something exceptional and finally looked like it last season. At quarterback, Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a veteran who has grown as a passer and is a true dual-threat. They only lost running back Demetric Felton to the NFL, yet they brought in transfer Zach Charbonnet from Michigan. Across the offensive line, all five starters are returning, including left tackle Sean Rhyan who has received early first-round hype. There’s plenty of weapons on the outside that will keep this offense running on all cylinders. This Bruins offense ranked top 20 in the country in points per game, 21st in yards per game, and 12th in rushing yards per game. They weren’t too spectacular on defense but are returning 10 out of 11 starters, only losing Osa Odighizuwa.

When comparing these teams, you can see why they’re giving Hawaii 17 points. UCLA has the high-powered offense to run away with this game early. Hawaii’s record off the island is historically bad and is outgunned against the Bruins. However, I’m wary of this significant spread in Week 0. The money is in the total for me. In the last three seasons, Hawaii’s first game has gone under each time. In 2020, Hawaii’s over/unders were 2-7. At 68.5, this total is favoring the high octane UCLA offense and the awful Hawaii run defense. UCLA will control this game from the get-go and get theirs, but Hawaii’s offense will not keep up. Week 1 for both teams is always about shaking off the rust.

Pick: Under 68.5