Fantasy Football Mailbag: Devy Edition

Answering any fantasy football questions each week.

Author:
Skip Newton
Publish date:
Aug 29, 2021 1:18 PM EDT

Get your fantasy football questions in each week!

Now that the college season is underway, every week will feature a mailbag article where readers can ask their devy questions. Send a tweet to @skipnewton31 to add your question to a future article!

When looking at finding quarterbacks for devy, do you find it better to get the young freshman guys, or do you like to wait in drafts and pick up more quarterbacks in middle rounds since they have such a low hit rate of success? -Sal

Quarterbacks are essential in fantasy football, especially in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues. However, the number of top-rated passers who develop into NFL starters is alarmingly low. Here is a list of fantasy-relevant NFL quarterbacks rated in the top 20 of their recruiting class between 2011 and 2016.

2016: Jalen Hurts

2015: Kyler Murray, Drew Lock, Sam Darnold, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson

2014: Deshaun Watson

2013: Mitch Trubisky

2012: Jameis Winston

2011: Teddy Bridgewater, Marcus Mariota

Aside from an outstanding 2015 class, the average number of top-20 quarterback prospects contributing to a fantasy roster is one player per year. When you look at running backs and wide receivers recruited in those same classes, the hit rate improves to four per year. If devy managers want to increase their chances of finding college players who will succeed in the NFL, they would be wise to wait on quarterbacks and draft other positions early in drafts.

Where do you rank Quinn Ewers now that he is on campus? - Brandon Lejeune (@DevyDeepDive)

The Ohio State Buckeyes have three highly-recruited freshman quarterbacks on the roster. Redshirt-freshman C.J. Stroud won the starting job over 2021 recruits Kyle McCord and Quinn Ewers, who chose to skip his senior year of high school and enroll a year early. Ewers was the number one recruit in the 2022 class and is the highest-rated prospect since Trevor Lawrence, the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

While Stroud is the starter and McCord is the eighth-ranked quarterback in this year’s class, Ewers is the best of the bunch. He scored a perfect 100 from 247Sports. Ewers is accurate at all levels and has plenty of arm strength. His pocket awareness is elite for a player his age. It is only a matter of time before he takes over as the starter in Columbus.

The only quarterbacks ranked ahead of him for devy are Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler, Clemson’s D.J. Uiagalelei, and Sam Howell from North Carolina. These three have all played well at the FBS level, giving them the edge today. The keyword is today. Once Ewers hits the field, he could quickly jump these guys in the rankings. He is that good.

Which 2022 NFL Draft prospects do you feel offer outstanding value? - Todd Foster (@FF_banterman)

There are a few players who will improve their draft stock between now and next April. It happens every season. Last year it was former Tar Heels running back Javonte Williams and Alabama quarterback Mac Jones. The goal is to identify players who will not cost much to acquire now but could offer a big return come draft day.

The top passers on most devy rankings are Rattler and Howell, followed closely by Nevada’s Carson Strong and Malik Willis, the dual-threat prospect from Liberty. Which players could sneak into the first round of the NFL Draft if they have a big 2021 season? The first is Dillon Gabriel from the University of Central Florida. Gabriel has good pocket awareness and takes care of the football, throwing 61 touchdowns to just 11 interceptions in two seasons. He has enough mobility to buy time in the pocket and features a nice touch on his passes.

Ole Miss’s strong-armed passer Matt Corral could be the biggest wild-card in the 2022 draft. He has a lively arm and can make plays with his legs. Corral had a breakout season in 2020, throwing for over 3,300 yards, 29 touchdowns, and running for 506 yards and four additional scores. The concern is his 14 interceptions. If he can cut down on turnovers while maintaining the production, he could hear his name called on day one of the draft.

Boston College’s Phil Jurkovec might be the most under-the-radar quarterback in FBS. The former recruit from Notre Dame quietly broke out in his first season with the Eagles, throwing for 2,558 yards, 17 touchdowns, and five interceptions. At 6’5, 226-pounds, Jurkovec appears to be the prototypical pocket-passer but is mobile enough to move in the pocket and scramble for first downs. He seems to be a perfect day two pick in the draft due to his poise, accuracy and arm strength.

Most devy managers have Isaiah Spiller and Breece Hall at the top of their 2022 running back rankings. The next tier of runners is the subject of intriguing debate. When looking for value, the first back to target is Eric Gray from Oklahoma. Gray transferred from Tennessee, which should result in a breakout season. It will take a little more to trade for him now than last season, but he is still an excellent prospect to add. Once he showcases his skills for a talented Sooner squad, his value will skyrocket.

Brigham Young’s Tyler Allgeier had a breakout season in 2020 with 1,130 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. However, many devy managers only focus on power five schools, meaning his value remains relatively low. At 5’11, 220-pounds, Allgeier has the ideal size for the NFL and uses that size well. The best part is that acquiring him will not cost much, making him a low-risk devy asset that could result in big rewards.

Another running back to target who is virtually free is USC transfer Keaontay Ingram. The former Longhorn had difficulty staying healthy in Texas and lost his job to freshman stud Bijan Robinson. 2021 is Ingram’s time to shine. He should have a massive season in the talented Trojan’s offense. Ingram has already proven he is a good pass-catcher with 56 receptions in his first two seasons. If he stays healthy, the talented Texas transfer will demonstrate the elusive, strong running style that NFL teams covet.

One wide receiver to target before the season starts is Clemson’s, Justyn Ross. He missed the entire 2020 season due to a congenital fusion condition of his neck and spine. Fortunately for Ross and the Tigers, he has been cleared to play in 2021. Ross recorded 1,865 yards and 17 touchdowns in his first two seasons and could be Uiagalelei’s number one target. Get him now before he hits the field and reminds everyone why he was a top prospect before the injury.

Another excellent value at wide receiver is Romeo Doubs from Nevada. He has produced in all three seasons and broke out in 2020 with 1,002 yards and nine touchdowns in nine games. He has good size, 6’2, 200-pounds and is a play-maker after the catch. Doubs could sneak into day two of the 2022 draft, making him a great player to add to your roster.

The last wide receiver whose value is likely to rise is another player from Boston College. Zay Flowers has high-end speed and is dynamic after the catch. He broke out in 2020 with 892 yards and nine touchdowns in 11 games. Flowers is a big-play threat. At 5-10, 177-pounds, he is smaller than most receiving prospects, but the NFL is trending towards dynamic playmakers, regardless of their size.

The most challenging position to find fantasy goodness is the tight end. Unfortunately, there is not a stud like Kyle Pitts every season. Finding value is nearly impossible. However, Cole Turner from Nevada is worth acquiring before he puts up another fantastic season. In 2020, Turner exploded for 49 receptions, 605 yards and nine touchdowns in nine games. The converted wide receiver is 6’6, 240-pounds and is a nightmare matchup for linebackers. Turner’s ability to win contested catches makes him an ideal red-zone target. His receiving upside makes him a great player to add while his value is still low.