2024 NFL Mock Draft: Bears Pass on Top QBs, Make Shocking Pick at No. 1
We still have more than two months before the 2024 NFL Draft officially kicks off, but even at this point in the process, most early projections have reached a consensus when it comes to the No. 1 pick.
The Chicago Bears are widely expected to spend that selection on USC quarterback Caleb Williams, but the latest 2024 NFL mock draft from NFL Network's Cynthia Frelund takes a much different approach.
Frelund's forecast is a unique one based on an intriguing analytical model that seeks to maximize every team's projected win total in 2024 based on their respective picks. That model led to the Bears passing up Williams and the other top quarterback prospects in this class, and instead spending the No. 1 pick on Notre Dame offensive tackle Joe Alt.
Here's what Frelund had to say about the pick:
In this theoretical exercise, the Bears keep Justin Fields and pick this high-floor (aka lowered risk) LT prospect, who has experience but is also young (20 years old) with a ton of upside. Alt just passes receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. in immediate impact for the Bears’ O-line, which allowed their QBs to be pressured at the highest rate in the league last season (45.1 percent). This helps to show the value of the Bears’ first-round equity, which will allow them to move all over the board if they want to.
It's hard to argue with adding a franchise left tackle to an offensive line that has struggled in recent years, especially one as talented as Alt. His dad was a Pro Bowl tackle in his day, and despite being one of the younger prospects in the class, Alt brings an impressive level of polish and experience to the table.
Even so, it would be nothing short of a massive shock to see the Bears keep the No. 1 pick, but not spend it on a quarterback. Even Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. would feel like a more realistic candidate to be the pick there if the Bears don't take a quarterback, especially considering the level of confidence the team has in current left tackle Braxton Jones.
Other surprising picks in this mock draft include Alabama cornerback Terrion Arnold cracking the top 5 (Los Angeles Chargers), Georgia tight end Brock Bowers falling to the Indianapolis Colts at No. 15, and the Miami Dolphins spending the No. 21 pick on a wide receiver (Florida State's Keon Coleman).
To check out Frelund's full first-round projection at NFL.com, click here.
