Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-1) @ New Orleans Saints (4-2): Betting Preview and Pick

Wondering who to bet on this weekend? Here is who you should gamble on in the Buccaneers and Saints game.

Author:
Fischer Smith
Publish date:
Oct 30, 2021 12:47 PM EDT

Odds

Buccaneers: -4.5 (-110) -220 ML
Saints: +4.5 (-110) +180 ML
Over: 50.5 (+100)
Under: 50.5 (-120)

The defending Super Bowl champions head to The Big Easy in week eight for an intriguing divisional contest. Tampa Bay, winners of its last four games, comes in fresh off a 38-3 shellacking of the Chicago Bears. It will be a short week for a New Orleans team that hung on for a 13-10 victory over the Seattle Seahawks this past Monday night. The main storyline is that this is a battle between one of the league’s best offenses and one of the league’s best defenses. Tampa Bay is the second-best offense in football in terms of yards per game (423.4) and the third-best scoring offense putting up 33.3 points per game. The Saints have the league’s third-best scoring defense allowing just 16.8 points per game this season. Something has to give in this matchup. Let’s analyze it further and make a betting pick.

Will The Saints Contain Brady?

The Buccaneers have thrown the ball on 65.8 percent of their plays this season which is the second-most in football. New Orleans is terrific versus the run, ranking number one in the league in success rate against the run (38%) and yards allowed per carry (3.3), so the Bucs will have to continue to lean heavily on Tom Brady and the passing attack to put up points.

The Saints have performed almost as well against the pass this season as they have against the run. Dennis Allen’s defense ranks fifth in the NFL this season in success rate versus the pass (43%), second in adjusted yards allowed per pass attempt (5.8), and third in adjusted net yards allowed per pass attempt (5.1). The unit only allows one passing touchdown per game - tied for second best in the league.

Brady will have his work cut out for him as he faces a stingy secondary. He will also be without one of his favorite targets in Antonio Brown, and Brady more than likely will not get much help from his running game in this matchup.

Can Jameis get the offense going?

The Saints throw the ball on just 47.03 percent of their plays - the fewest in football this season. The Saints will have a very difficult time running the football against Tampa Bay; however, Tampa has the number one rushing defense in the NFL this season in terms of rushing yards

allowed per game (67.4). Todd Bowles’ unit also ranks third in the league in yards allowed per carry (3.7) and fifth in success rate against the run (43%).

New Orleans is going to have to open up the air attack to put points on the board. They will look to take advantage of a Tampa Bay secondary that ranks 24th in the league in success rate versus the pass (51%). However, it is hard to trust a Winston-led passing attack that ranks 23rd in passing success rate (46%) and 30th in explosive pass play rate (7%). Despite not having performed stellar against the pass this year, Tampa Bay’s defense still ranks fifth in adjusted yards allowed per pass attempt (6.3) and seventh in adjusted net yards allowed per pass attempt (5.6).

Winston will also be going up against his former team and a coaching staff that knows him all too well. Sean Payton’s offense only has a seven percent total explosive play rate - the third-lowest mark in football. It will have its hands full with the Bucs on Sunday.

Betting Pick

Both offenses could struggle to get to their average scoring outputs (TB - 33.3, NO - 23.3). Tampa Bay will likely be one-dimensional as the Saints have stuffed the run this season. It will not have an easy day against the pass either, as New Orleans has one of the league’s best pass defenses. The Buccaneers’ defense has shut down the run as well this season, which is especially ideal when going up against the Saints, who love to run the football. Jameis Winston will be relied on heavily - and we have seen how that ends before. Usually not well.

There is value on the total in this matchup. The Saints’ defense is legit and should be able to hold Tampa Bay to under 30 points. The Buccaneers were held to 28 points just two weeks ago against a Philadelphia Eagles defense that ranks in the middle of the pack of the league defensively. The Saints’ offense has struggled mightily at times and comes off a short week in which it scored only 13 points.

50.5 seems quite high here for what projects to be a defensive football game. Back the under in this NFC South showdown.

Pick: Under 50.5 (-120), bet to 48.5