2020 Projections: Lions' Running Backs
The Lions have one of the deepest backfields they have had in a long time.
Filled with young talent, the running back position is going to be full of battles in training camp.
In terms of who will start, the term “starter” may just be a label, but the tag will be placed on one of the backs to start the season.
In an expected running back-by-committee approach, there will be plenty of rotation.
As of now, it looks to be a two-horse race between rookie D’Andre Swift and third-year pro Kerryon Johnson.
More than likely, there will be multiple players to start at the position throughout the season.
Going into the 2020 preseason, the veteran Johnson is still the incumbent.
However, it’s very possible Swift could take over the main back role as the season progresses.
Like Swift, Johnson was a second-round selection.
After a great rookie year where Johnson averaged 5.43 yards per carry -- the highest rushing average by a rookie (min. 100 attempts) in franchise history -- he experienced a big-time letdown in 2019.
Unfortunately, injuries have also taken their toll.
In both of Johnson’s first two years in the NFL, he has ended up on the injured reserve. If Johnson can prove he can stay healthy, his outlook would be very different.
Under offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell last season, Johnson saw plenty of stacked boxes, with all the heavy formations that Bevell utilized.
As the season progressed, Bevell adapted to his team’s strengths, and began using more three-wide sets as well as limiting the use of the fullback.
In turn, it opened up more space for the running backs to operate, and the offense saw better rushing success.
As an example, look no further than Johnson's 3.3 yards per carry average before his injured reserve stint starting in Week 8.
After returning in Weeks 16 and 17, he averaged 4.5 yards per carry.
Overall, spreading the offense out was a little bit against the grain for what Bevell has done in the past.
When the Lions used 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end and three receivers) last season, they averaged 4.9 yards per rush attempt.
In comparison, in 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends and two receivers), they only averaged 3.4 yards per carry.
Interestingly enough, having space to operate is also where Swift does his best work.
He is electric with the ball in his hands.
When it comes to pure strength, his 5-foot-8, 212-pound frame isn't necessarily going to move a pile.
Looking at his average amount of yards per carry while at Georgia, Swift was much better on the outside than the inside.
Even going by missed tackle percentage, his 21 percent of forced tackles missed is a middling ratio. Swift is a player that needs room to operate to get the best out of him.
The Lions had the option in this year's draft to select a big, bruising running back like Jonathan Taylor out of Wisconsin -- a better fit for Bevell’s power offenses of old.
Perhaps the selection of Swift is an indication of the style of play the Lions want on offense.
If Bevell does revert to more of an old-school, ground-and-pound scheme, Swift may struggle a bit.
There was quite the disparity of grades from Pro Football Focus for Swift in terms of run blocking styles.
When running zone plays, Swift's grade was 82.1 in 2019.
Meanwhile, in gap or power plays, his grade dipped down to 64.0 -- which is well below average.
Again, naming a starter in the backfield may be a futile exercise.
No matter the case, Johnson still has the slight edge, solely off the fact that he is the veteran. Yet, he is on a very short leash.
Running back is one position that typically doesn't take long to make an impact at the next level.
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