Odds Lions Defeat Seattle Seahawks
The Detroit Lions (2-12-1) head into Lumen Field for a Week 17 matchup with the Seattle Seahawks (5-10), and actually have a chance to win. Really.
I know it sounds odd, with Seattle being the home of the "12th Man" and such.
However, Seattle is nowhere close to the Super Bowl-contending team that it used to be.
The Seahawks already have 10 losses on the season -- their first season with double-digit losses since the 2009 campaign -- and sit dead last in the NFC West division.
They're, in fact, set to finish in last place in the NFC West for the first time since 1996, when the division was comprised of five teams.
Additionally, prior to the 2021 campaign, Seattle had failed to suffer a losing campaign during the Russell Wilson era (began in 2012).
And you'd have to go all the way back to the 2011 season for the last time the Seahawks had experienced a losing season (7-9 record; Pete Carroll's second season in Seattle).
Now, both Carroll and Wilson might be out of town at season's end, potentially bringing an end to a very successful tenure for the two in Seattle. They've spent a decade together with the Seahawks, winning four division championships, two NFC championships and a Super Bowl title.
Speaking of Wilson, he's failed to play in a full season's worth of games for the first time in his career, and has thrown for a career-low number of yards (2,639) and touchdowns (18). He's also posted a career-worst QBR (47.6).
It tells me the Lions have a chance to beat the Seahawks Sunday.
Troy Taormina, USA TODAY Sports
Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn offered his take on Wilson and Seattle's offense earlier this week.
“My opinion of Russell will never change. I think he’s one of the best quarterbacks in this league, and I think we all agree to that," Glenn said. "The one thing that they do, they stretch with this running game they have. Those linemen, they’re maulers. Our inside guys know that, and they have a job ahead of them. And then, they stretch you with this play-action pass, the deep shots to (DK Metcalf) 14 and (Tyler Lockett) 16. Both of those guys are fast -- 14 is big, Metcalf -- 16, Lockett, he’s a speedster, good route runner. So, we have to make sure we’re on top of those things with those guys. And, that’s the thing they do. They stretch you with so much running game that you want to put an extra guy in the box, just like we were talking about with the safety. We want to put him in the box, and next thing you know, they’re trying to go over the top with Metcalf and Lockett. So, we have to be very careful on how we do that."
The variable working against a potential Detroit upset of Seattle is the health of starting signal-caller Jared Goff.
Goff, who cleared COVID-19 protocols Monday, missed Thursday's practice with a lingering knee injury that he suffered during the Lions' win against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15.
If Goff doesn't get the start and Tim Boyle does instead, it significantly diminishes the odds of Detroit coming out on top in the Week 17 matchup.
On a positive note for the Lions, running back D'Andre Swift was a full participant in practice Thursday, indicating there's a strong likelihood he will return to action this week after missing the last four games with a shoulder injury.
Swift and Detroit's offense will have their hands full going up against the talented linebacker duo of Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks, which has combined for 325 tackles and 10 passes defensed through 15 games in 2021.
"Wagner has done it for a long time. He’s a quality player, and has been in this league. And, he’s smart, he’s durable, he’s reliable, he’s aware, he’s instinctive and he’s been in that system a long time. So, he’s really their bellcow defensively. We’ve got to make sure we get a hat on him at all times, because he’ll make every tackle if you’re not careful," Lions head coach Dan Campbell told reporters this week.
Campbell also touched upon the impact that Brooks has on the Seahawks' defense.
"And then, with the addition of Brooks, I remember Brooks coming out a few years ago. What a talented player that he is, and he’s very active, but versatile, too," Campbell said. "They do a lot of stuff where he’s on the line of scrimmage, he can rush, he can drop, he can play in the stack. So, he brings a lot of versatility, and he’s a damn good athlete, too. So, that combination, that duo, it’s pretty good. Some of the better ones in the league.”
Taking into account all the above factors, I'll give the Lions a 30 percent chance to secure the Week 17 victory.
