How the Saints can trade up in the NFL Draft
The day has finally come for the 2020 NFL Draft. Tonight football fans across the world have been hankering for some sports after the COVID-19 outbreak. John Hendrix has the details you need to follow the Saints in the draft and their proclivity to trade up in past drafts. HC Sean Payton and GM Mickey Loomis may be in the mood for another draft-day transaction to slide-up the draft board and get their man.
Do the Saints have the currency to move all the up to #1 and draft LSU champion QB Joe Burrow? How about having enough chips for a gamebreaking WR like Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy or Henry Ruggs? Let’s have a look at how history dictates the value of the 2020 draft picks and wildly speculate on possible trades, and their value ahead of the draft.
Over the years, football pundits and analysts have devised scoring systems to assign a numeric value to the position of given selections in the draft. For the 2020 Draft, the website Pro Football Reference has the first overall selection, widely expected to be LSU QB Joe Burrow, 3,000 points. For reference, the Saints #24 selection is worth a quarter of that pick, at 740 points.
Meaning, if the Saints coveted Burrow (for example) they would need to acquire and trade the equivalent of the Minnesota Vikings 22nd and 25th picks (780 and 720 points), and the New England Patriots 23rd pick (760 points), while not trading away their current 24th pick, to equal the prescribed value of the #1 selection in this year’s draft.
That’s a lot of capital, and any team making a move that drastic could face serious player personnel repercussions for years - as the Saints experienced following the Ricky Williams trade.
Obviously, this is an exercise in theory and current owner of the #1 pick, Cincinnati Bengals, may not even be interested in answering their phone. Alas, the Saints have needs all over the place. Let’s take a look at some potential trades the Saints could discuss making tonight.
In determining player positions, we’ll work off the projections of Sports Illustrated’s Kevin Hanson in his final mock draft for 2020. Point totals for subsequent seasons are estimates, and because the value of active players is tied to a slew of contextual factors, including salaries and scheme, they will not be included.
Quarterbacks
© Matthew Emmons
Brees is on a one-to-two season timer, and Taysom Hill’s long-term viability as a signal caller remains to be seen. This could be the year the Saints make an early move for their franchise QB.
Joe Burrow (projected #1; 3,000 points) - Three 1st round picks, two second round picks, and two third round picks. This one is really just an exercise in demonstrating the value of moving up from #24 to #1 - don’t count on it.
- 2020 1st (740 points), 2021 1st (620 points), 2022 1st (600 points), 2021 2nd (284 points), 2022 2nd (276 points), 2020 3rd (150 points), 2021 3rd (128 points).
Tua Tagovailoa (projected #6; 1,600 points) - Two 1st round picks and a 2021 second round pick. The numbers work out, but in this modern era I’d think it would take a couple more later round picks to make this happen.
- 2020 1st (740 points), 2021 1st (620 points), 2021 2nd (276 points)
Wide Receivers
© Jason Getz
Outside of one of the league’s elite WRs in Michael Thomas, and perhaps veteran receiver Emmanuel Sanders, the Saints wide-receiving corps is questionable. In what looks to be the best class of receivers in recent memory, the Saints might want to strike while the iron is hot.
CeeDee Lamb, Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy (projected #12-15; approximately 1,200 points) - Two first round picks. Maybe throw in 2020 third or 2021 third and fifth.
Justin Jefferson (projected #21; 800 points) - One 1st round pick and this year’s 5th and 6th round selections.
- 2020 1st (740 points), 2020 5th (42 points), 2020 6th (24 points)
Defense
© John David Mercer
Isaiah Simmons (projected #7; 1,500 points) - Though Simmons is projected a round lower than Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, #7 belongs to the division rival Carolina Panthers who likely won’t be answering any calls with area code 504 tonight. So, the Saints would need to trade with the Los Angeles Chargers to get Simmons, sending the same deal above as for Tua.
K’Lavon Chaisson (projected #17; 950 points) - One first round pick, one third round pick and a fifth round pick
- 2020 1st (740 points), 2020 3rd (150 points), 2020 5th (42 points)
Patrick Queen (projected #24) - No trade necessary! If the draft works out as projected (which, of course, it won’t), the Saints get hometown product and versatile sideline-to-sideline LB Patrick Queen to fill a crucial gap in the Saints defense.
Even before the draft-day-trade era of Sean Payton and Mickey Loomis, the Saints were not afraid to make moves to get their guy. Saints faithful are well aware of the notorious Ricky Williams trade in the 1999 NFL Draft (which has its own dedicated Wikipedia page here). Then-GM Bill Kuharich, together with coach Mike Ditka, coveted Heisman trophy-winning RB Ricky Williams out of the University of Texas, and schemed to package a trade to get him.
The Saints sent a king’s ransom (read: their entire draft) to the Washington Redskins, including two firsts (one in 2000), two thirds (one in 2000), and all remaining 1999 picks, fourth through seventh, to move up a mere seven spots to draft Williams. The deal lives in infamy in Saints lore, and set a cautionary framework for what picks are worth.
This is merely a sampling of what could possibly take place tonight, very much in a vacuum, but the NFL Draft is a consistently volatile affair and so take these projections with a large grain of salt. It should be a fun night and I am wholeheartedly expected the Saints to make a pick that is not #24.
Be sure to follow our live blog and all of the coverage of the Saints 2020 draft here at Saints News Network!
