Best Super Bowl PrizePicks & Underdog Props: Fade JSN, Attack Hunter Henry

Why the Patriots pass-catchers offer more value than Seattle's star receiver on Super Bowl Sunday

Jan 11, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry (85) celebrates with New England Patriots wide receiver Kyle Williams (18) after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers in an AFC Wild Card Round game at Gillette Stadium. | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Seattle is a 4.5-point favorite. The market expects the Seahawks to win. But props markets don't always follow the spread—and that's where value lives.

After breaking down the projections, the recency trends, and the matchup dynamics, I'm leaning heavily toward Patriots pass-catchers and both teams' running backs. Here's my full card.

The Patriots' "Historic" Defense? Not So Fast.

Before we get to picks, let's pump the brakes on New England's playoff defensive stats.

Yes, they've allowed just 629 total yards across three games. But context matters. In the Wild Card, Justin Herbert was running for his life behind a decimated offensive line missing both starting tackles. In the Divisional Round, C.J. Stroud had his worst career game in a snowstorm without Nico Collins or Dalton Schultz. And in the AFC Championship? They faced Jarrett Stidham—a backup who hadn't thrown an NFL pass in two years—in brutal conditions.

The Patriots defense is good. Legitimately top-5 during the regular season. But "historic" overstates it when they haven't faced a healthy offense in normal conditions all postseason. The Super Bowl will be played in California. Good weather. Real test.

Kenneth Walker: The Game-Breaker Gets Both Overs

Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9) leaves the field following an NFC Divisional Round game against the San Francisco 49ers at Lumen Field. | Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

OVER 74.5 Rush Yards (Both Platforms) — Lean

OVER 21.5 Receiving Yards (Both Platforms) — Strong Lean

Walker is averaging 89 rushing yards per game in the playoffs—already above the 74.5 line. Yes, he had "only" 62 yards against the Rams in the NFC Championship. But that's against a defense that's probably worse than New England's, and he still ripped off a 15-yard run in that game. One more chunk play and he clears the number.

The key is Walker's style. He's not a grinder who needs consistent holes—he's a game-breaker with exceptional vision who forces missed tackles on 30.2% of his touches (second in the NFL). He doesn't need 20 clean carries. He needs 15 mediocre ones and one crease.

With Charbonnet out, Walker is the unquestioned bell cow getting 19+ carries per game. He's been on fire—364 rushing yards in his last four games at 5.96 yards per carry. The projection models say under (67.1 yards), but the context says over.

The receiving yards play is even stronger. Walker's receiving production has actually increased as competition got tougher—29 yards against the 49ers, then 49 yards against the Rams. New England's elite pass defense will bracket JSN and take away the deep ball, which means Darnold checks down to Walker. The 80% L-5 hit rate supports it.

Rhamondre Stevenson: The Underdog's Workhorse

OVER 52.5 Rush Yards (Underdog) — Strong Lean

OVER 20.5 Receiving Yards (Underdog) — Lean

Stevenson has been the heartbeat of New England's playoff run. He's getting 15-25 carries per game, and Vrabel trusts him completely. Against the Chargers, he turned a checkdown into a 48-yard gain that saved a drive.

I'm so impressed with how well Rhamondre Stevenson has played down the back half of the Pats season.

No RB has a higher rate of 20+ yard gains/touch than Stevenson. Impactful downfield and checkdown receiver. Finishes through contact. Great feet/eyes. Fringe Top-10 back.

— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) January 26, 2026

Seattle's run defense is solid but not elite—nowhere near what Walker is facing against New England. The projection gives us 3.3 yards of edge on the rushing line, and Stevenson's L-5 hit rate is 80%.

Here's the underdog value angle: Seattle is favored, which means Patriots players might be undervalued. If New England is competitive—which I believe they will be—Stevenson's production will be there. The receiving yards prop works for the same reason Walker's does. When Seattle's pass rush gets home, Maye's first read is Stevenson in the flat.

Hunter Henry: The Sneaky Best Play

OVER 37.5 Receiving Yards (Underdog) — Lean

This might be my favorite play on the Patriots' side.

Henry had a career year—768 receiving yards, seven touchdowns, 60 catches. He's Drake Maye's security blanket. In the Wild Card, with the game on the line, Maye found Henry for a 28-yard touchdown dagger.

The matchup sets up perfectly. Seattle's defense will bracket JSN and try to eliminate explosive plays on the perimeter. That forces Maye to work the middle of the field—where Henry lives. The seam route against Cover-2 is Henry's bread and butter. The projection gives us 3.7 yards of edge, and his L-5 hit rate is 60% on the over.

Mack Hollins: Fresh Off IR and Undervalued

OVER 27.5 Receiving Yards (Both Platforms) — Strong Lean

Hollins returned from injured reserve in the AFC Championship and immediately flashed—51 yards on just two catches. No rust. No hesitation.

The market is pricing in injury risk and rust. That's a mistake. Hollins led all Patriots receivers in snaps during the regular season. He's not a depth piece—he's a starter. The projection gives us nearly 5 yards of edge, and his L-5 hit rate is 80% on the over.

The JSN Fade

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11) celebrates after a touchdown catch against the Atlanta Falcons in the fourth quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

UNDER 93.5 Receiving Yards (Underdog) — Worth a Look

Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards. He's the best receiver in football. And I'm still leaning under.

The projection has him at 87.8 yards—nearly 6 yards below the line. Christian Gonzalez will bracket him with safety help. New England's scheme is designed to eliminate explosive plays, which is JSN's specialty.

The game script matters too. If Seattle builds a lead and runs the ball, JSN might only see 5-6 targets. He had just 19 yards in the Wild Card when the Seahawks controlled the game.

The caveat is real: JSN can torch any coverage if he gets loose once. One 40-yard catch-and-run and the under is dead. Size this one appropriately.

The Supporting Cast

Sam Darnold OVER 6.5 Rush Yards — Strong Lean. The projection gives us 3.9 yards of edge. New England's pass rush will create scramble opportunities, and Darnold had 14 rushing yards in the NFC Championship.

TreVeyon Henderson OVER 1.5 Receiving Yards (PrizePicks) — Like It. The line is absurdly low. One checkdown clears it. The projection has him at 7.9 yards—massive edge.

Drake Maye UNDER 36.5 Rush Yards — Worth a Look. The weather will be better than the AFC Championship, and the game plan is to run Stevenson, not Maye. But if Seattle builds a lead and Maye has to scramble, this loses.

Stay Away

Stefon Diggs — 20% L-5 hit rate, no clear edge. The data doesn't support action.

Passing props for both QBs — Game script variance is too high. Darnold could throw for 180 or 280 depending on whether Seattle leads or trails.

The Bottom Line

Sam Darnold is completing his resurrection—from Jets bust to Super Bowl starter. Drake Maye is having his breakout—second-year QB leading a 4-13 to Super Bowl turnaround. Kenneth Walker is a game-breaker with bell cow volume. Rhamondre Stevenson is the underdog's workhorse who might be undervalued because Seattle is favored.

The best values on this board are the running backs (both of them) and the Patriots' pass-catchers who will benefit when Seattle sells out to stop the deep ball.

Good luck, and enjoy the game.

Lines and projections current as of January 27, 2026. Always confirm lines before locking in any plays.