Best Week 6 Quarterbacks & Running Backs to Target On DraftKings Tonight

Looking to cash in on DraftKings’ $500K Monday night doubleheader? Here’s a breakdown of the top Week 6 quarterbacks and running backs to target — plus injury updates that could swing the slate.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) drops back to pass against the New England Patriots during the first half at Highmark Stadium. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Decision-making and bankroll are two key components in taking down a DraftKings Millionaire Maker on Sunday’s main slate. Each season, I feel as though my projections and outlooks on the player pool will be in the game five or six times, giving me a chance at a big payday if I can hit on the correct defense and fill in the backend of my roster with winning players. 

Yesterday (10/12), I had my chance to shine, but I failed to connect all the winning dots. Here’s the winning roster at DraftKings:

DraftKings

Brwntwn4 won despite missing on two roster slots (Kyren Williams – 16.70) and their defense (Colts – 4.00). They combined to deliver a 2.2X outcome, well below the target of 4X scores typically needed to take down a million-dollar win in this event.

The difference-maker on this slate was Kayshon Boutte (on 1.2% of 161,764 rosters ~ 1,941 teams). In my Week 6 projections, I had him ranked 36th at wide receiver (4/53 with a 50% chance of scoring), making Boutte (3.24X) one of the better value wide receivers of the week at DraftKings. Even with information, most daily gamers wouldn’t gravitate toward him in the DFS market.

On Friday, in my DFS quarterback value report, I listed three options: Daniel Jones, Drake Maye, and Bryce, who all ranked in the top eight in their position in Week 6. Here’s the key information for Boutte on this slate, hidden in Maye’s player profile:

Maye’s ability to run helps his floor, and the Patriots are favored on the road. With two touchdowns and 250 combined yards, he’ll be in striking distance of a winning DFS play. A third score could be enough to steal the quarterback value in DraftKings Millionaire Maker. Kayshon Boutte has been quiet since Week 1 (6/103). New England may go out of their way to get him a score, given his college ties to LSU and his upbringing in Louisiana, creating a low-value hookup situation.

Rico Dowdle (3.52X) was the best value in my projections at running back while being easy to identify (37.6% rostered). George Pickens (3.89X) was my second-highest wide receiver (7/104/1) behind Puka Nacua, who had a challenging salary ($8,600). 

Here’s my best lineup:

DraftKings

Unfortunately, my Drake Maye/Kayshon Boutte teams had a stud wide receiver flavor (Puka, Emeka Egbuka, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba), leading to two massive misses, partly due to injuries. I also gamble at RB2 with both Patriots’ lineups (different rosters) due to remaining salary options, which also led to my roster being at weak tight end and defense. For this QB/WR to work, I needed to stick to my projections on a few teams (more capital invested) while getting away from Ashton Jeanty.

In the end, I had a chance at getting seven roster slots right, while also having an advantage at defense (Tampa – 2% rostered with 11.00 fantasy points). To win first overall, I would have needed to rotate in some of the top projected running backs.

On Monday night, DraftKings has another doubleheader slate with $500,000 for first prize. This event costs $20, with 88,235 entries needed to sell out.

Week 6 Monday Night Football Injuries to Monitor

Here is some key injury news:

• Dalton Kincaid (BUF) has been limited in practice this week with an oblique issue. He is listed as questionable, suggesting that Kincaid should play.
• Colston Loveland (CHI) continues to battle a hip issue, putting him in TE2 status for the Bears in this matchup.
• Darnell Mooney (ATL) has been ruled out, potentially creating an uptick in targets for Ray-Ray McCloud or Kyle Pitts.
• Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown won’t play for the Commanders. RB Chris Rodriguez remains listed as questionable with a calf injury. He didn’t practice coming into Monday, suggesting he may be limited or listed as inactive for this matchup. Deebo Samuel missed some practice time this week with a heel injury. Washington expects him to play.

Week 6 Monday Night Football Quarterbacks

Shawn Childs

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (DK: $7,700)

Over five starts this year, Allen posted about a 3X floor in three matchups while delivering an impact showing in Week 1 (424 combine yards with four touchdowns). He averaged only 26.5 passes over his last four games, lowering his fantasy value and opportunity, while creating fewer chances for his receiving options.

Heading into tonight’s action, the Falcons have allowed the fewest fantasy points (59.20) to quarterbacks (602/5 – 5.8 yards per pass attempt with 15 carries for 91 yards), helped by playing one fewer game. They’ve played against Baker Mayfield (206/3), J.J. McCarthy (183/0), Bryce Young (129/1), and Marcus Mariota (176/2).

The Bills want to run the ball, but they have the receiving talent to give Atlanta problems in this game. Allen is the top-rated quarterback for the week, with the tools to deliver over 30.00 fantasy points. 

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (DK: $5,600)

Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) celebrates after the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. | Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

Based on projected fantasy points per $1,000 invested (3.52), Williams appears to be the best value at quarterback, but that would require Josh Allen not to exceed my projections. Over his first four games, he played well in one game (310/4), which came against a poor Cowboys’ defense. His wide receivers have talent and upside, highlighted by their 57 catches for 687 yards and seven touchdowns. 

The Commanders rank 23rd in fantasy points (109.05) allowed to quarterbacks. They’ve given up 8.2 yards per pass attempt, with three teams gaining at least 290 combined yards from the quarterback position (GB – 304/2, LV – 294/3, and ATL – 315/2). The pass coverage has been helped by 15 sacks (five in two games), but Washington faced only 31.2 passes per game this year. The Commanders have lost the time of possession in each game while creating only three turnovers.

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (DK: $6,900)

Over five games, Daniels had yet to find his quarterback stride while missing two starts with a knee injury. His completion rate (59.2%) is well below his rookie season (69.0%) while delivering only four passing touchdowns in his three matchups. Last year, he gained 378 combined yards vs. the Bears with one score. Washington has run the ball well this season (133/782/7 – 5.9 yards per carry).

The Bears’ pass defense was unchallenged by the Vikings (143/2 on 20 pass attempts) and Raiders (117/2 on 21 pass attempts), and Detroit only needed to pass the ball 28 times to amass 334 yards and five passing touchdowns. Chicago held the Cowboys to fewer yards per pass attempt (6.5), but they gained 292 passing yards with one score on 45 passes. The Bears’ defense only has five sacks, and they have yet to face a mobile quarterback.

Based on both teams' passing data, Daniels should have an increased passing opportunity in this matchup based on regression to the mean on both sides of the ball. Chicago has massive issues vs. the run (6.1 yards per pass attempt), which has to be an area of focus in this game plan coming into this matchup. 

I expect Daniels to be more active as a runner in this contest. His ceiling in pass stats is tied to his secondary receiving options with Terry McLaurin out of action.

Michael Penix, Atlanta Falcons (DK: $5,000)

In his two home starts, Penix had success passing the ball (298/1 and 313/2), with the latter coming against the Commanders. The Falcons have controlled the clock in three games (35:12, 36:12, and 34:15) while facing Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Carolina, and Washington. 

Buffalo played well in pass coverage (837/6), but they’ve given up yards to quarterbacks on the ground (25/211/1 – 8.4 yards per carry), an area that Penix won’t expose. The Bills’ defense has been helped by playing four games at home (BAL, MIA, NO, and NE) while their offense has won the time of possession battle in each matchup.

Week 6 Monday Night Football Running Backs

Shawn Childs

James Cook, Buffalo Bills (DK: $7,100)

The Patriots’ defense kept Cook in check (15/49) for the first time all season. Over his previous four starts, he gained over 100 combined yards and a touchdown in each matchup. From Week 2 to Week 4, Cook rushed for over 100 yards in each contest – 21/132/2, 19/108/1, and 22/117/1). His value catching the ball has been less over his last four games (1/3, 3/10, and 3/18). 

Atlanta leads the NFL in running back defense (69.40 fantasy points), thanks in part to playing one fewer game and being on the field for about 26.5 minutes per game. Despite their appearance of success, the Falcons are allowed 4.6 yards per rush. They’ve only given up two scores on the ground, with minimal damage in catches (113) and receiving yards (39).

The Bills have blocked well for Cook this year, and he has found daylight past the line of scrimmage on many plays. I respect his floor and scoring upside in what appears to be a below-par matchup.

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons (DK: $8,200)

Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs during the first half against the Washington Commanders at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

I don’t know what will be harder in tonight’s game – fading Robinson or fitting him into a DFS lineup. He’s gained over 100 combined yards in all four of his starts while averaging 20.5 touches a game. In both of his home matchups, Robinson was active catching the ball (6/100/1 and 4/106), giving him 27.40 and 31.10 fantasy points in DraftKings scoring.

The Bills have shown risk defending the run to running backs (106/517/6 – 4.9 yards per carry) while minimizing the damage in the pass game (21/83/0 on 30 targets). Derrick Henry (18/169/2 with one catch for 13 yards) had the most success. De’Von Achane gained 91 combined yards with seven catches.

Sometimes in shorter slates, points per roster slot are worth more than looking for value. Robinson has a 20.00+ fantasy points profile, putting him on the winning DFS ticket. The challenge of rostering him is finding the correct combination of backend fillers.

D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears (DK: $5,500)

Over four games, Swift averaged 12.80 fantasy points and 17.25 touches per game. He’s gaining only 3.3 yards per carry and 6.5 yards per catch. Both of his touchdowns have come on the road. 

Washington has held running backs to 3.8 yards per carry (123/461) with three scores on the ground. They will give up some big plays via the pass to running backs (20/189 – 9.5 yards per catch). 

Swift should be on a lower percentage of rosters tonight. His profile isn’t far off a 3X outcome, putting him a touchdown away from being a slate breaker for the fantasy teams that faded him.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Washington Commanders (DK: $5,600)

The DFS market will fight to start Croskey-Merritt tonight after posting his best game in Week 5 (14/111/2 with two catches for 39 yards). Despite his success, Washington only had him on the field for 47% of their snaps, a season high. With Chris Rodriguez trending toward missing tonight’s game, the Commanders’ rookie running back should have more playing time.

The Bears struggle against the run vs. running backs (100/596/3 – 6.0 yards per carry) while also allowing three receiving touchdowns out of the backfield (19/121/3). In their last game, Ashton Jeanty gained 155 combined yards with three touchdowns and two catches.

Many DFS players tonight will start their roster with Croskey-Merritt based on his matchup, salary, and direction. He still has some questions about his pass protection, but that area will be less of a factor if the Commanders play from the lead.