Perfect DFS Showdown Lineup for Patriots-Broncos: Jarrett Stidham is a Must-Use

The AFC Championship will be taking place this Sunday between the New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos. Both teams have balanced offenses and both of those offenses show us many interesting players to use. In that, we will look to attack FanDuel and/or DraftKings with a Showdown Lineup for the big game. This is who we look across all key positions in said game.

Quarterback: Drake Maye vs Jarrett Stidham

Drake Maye will take on a Broncos defense that is 8th versus Quarterbacks. This is actually a small let-up in contrast to their #2 Ranking versus Wide Receivers. In Maye's first two games of this postseason, he faced unit actually worse than Denver's. The Texans rank 1st versus Quarterback and the Chargers were 6th. In the face of that, Maye scored no worse than 1.9x of salary in both games. The MVP contender is well worth a play.

In his first career start, Jarrett Stidham was 23/34 with 365 yards and 3 TDs.

What kind of stats will he put up in his first playoff start? 👀

NEvsDEN– Sunday 3:00pm ET on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/SygxhWKCdw
— NFL (@NFL) January 20, 2026

Jarrett Stidham may very well be overlooked in this game. I am big on Stidham as is Sean Peyton. In Average Annual Value, Stidham is the 2nd highest paid backup in the NFL, and with good reason. I have little statistics to show you, but the Broncos are 11th in Passing Offense and I do think Stidham can keep them in the top-half.

The issue will be that fact that Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant may both be out. This could force more short-passing and running of the football. At a discount, however, I would use Stidham as it gives us a huge upper hand if correct.

Play Jarrett Stidham at cost, but both are very use-able.

Best Running Back Picks

Rhamondre Stevenson has been playing as the RB1 over the past couple weeks. This split has Stevenson playing to about 55% of team rushing attempts. Contrary to the workload, Stevenson does not own the red zone. There is no single game where Stevenson has out-snapped Henderson in the red zone since Week 12. This makes him more yardage-reliant as the touchdown is less likely to occur.

TreVeyon Henderson is the opposite of Stevenson. He will rely on big plays, but he can also get it. We expect Henderson to have 30-40 of this rushing offense. He will have about a 40% red zone rushing share, which gives him a solid chance to find himself a touchdown. The Broncos are, however, 4th versus running backs, so it will not come easy.

Highest passer rating when targeted among rookies this season: (Min 50 targets)

🥇 RJ Harvey - 120.6
🥈 Colston Loveland - 107.7
🥉 Gunnar Helm - 106.6 pic.twitter.com/C3rWiPrUtV
— PFF Fantasy (@PFF_Fantasy) January 21, 2026

RJ Harvey is the sole man in the Broncos backfield. He should have 60-65% of this rushing offense in his hands. Outside of a outlier Week 16, Harvey has non less than (3) red zone touches in any game since JK Dobbins went down injured. The Patriots are 3rd versus running backs, but volume rings supreme with Harvey.

Best Running Back Picks:

TreVeyon Henderson
RJ Harvey

Best Wide Receiver Picks

Stefon Diggs is the WR1, but by a thinner margin than most. We project Diggs to have a 23% target share. In the red zone, Diggs only has an 18% target share on the season. All meanwhile, the Broncos are 2nd best versus Wide Receivers, allowing just (6) touchdowns on the season.

Kayshon Boutte is a home run hitter, which may be the better angle if playing a Patriot. He has an NFL-best (17.3) Yards per Reception among qualified wide receivers. He also leads all Patriots wide receivers with (7) touchdowns.

Demario Douglas is averaging (2.4) Targets per Game on a 72% Catch-Rate. He does have (4) touchdowns, but that still makes him about 20% likely to pull if off in this game. Ja'Quan McMillan will only be his main defender, being one of the best slot cornerbacks in the NFL.

Courtland Sutton could see elevated volume with his WR2 and 3 in question. Sutton has a 21% target share on the year, and it very well may rise above 25% in this game. Despite Stidham playing now, he will still feed Sutton his work. Red zone stats may go out the window with a new quarterback, but Sutton does average (1.0) red zone targets per game on a 23% red zone target share.

Troy Franklin was limited in Wednesday practice, but we lean towards him playing. If he plays, he is valuable as Bryant is very likely out. Franklin has a 17% target share and he is 2nd on the Broncos in red zone targets at (17). Prior to Bryant's rise, Franklin had been the #1 red zone option for a number of weeks.

Bo Nix has his moment: A go-ahead TD to Marvin Mims for the lead and the Broncos have the lead with 55 seconds remaining: pic.twitter.com/T0KDVRJzqL
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) January 18, 2026

Marvin Mims Jr. could possibly leap-frog Franklin to WR2 duties. The fact that Franklin lost his job to Bryant shows that he does not have it secured. Meanwhile, Mims Jr. had (8) Receptions last week and he likely has more practice reps with Stidham as a 2nd teamer.

Best Wide Receiver Picks:

Kayshon Boutte
Courtland Sutton
Troy Franklin
Marvin Mims Jr.

Best Sleeper Picks

Lil'Jordan Humphrey

He is a high-risk, high-reward play. Humphrey did play more snap last week than any wide receiver not named Courtland Sutton. Humphrey did also score. If he can play to a 10-15% target share, he may be a worthwhile pick of 4+ targets.

Austin Hooper

Hooper is so very cheap that one reception may pay his cost to hit 1x, if not 2x. He plays about 1/3rd of snaps and in this matchup, the Patriots would likely find more efficiency with their tight ends. Hooper has at least one target in every game he has played this season. He averages about (2) per game.

Tight End: Hunter Henry vs Evan Engram

Hunter Henry is the 2nd-highest priced tight end this week. He has an 18% target share and a team-best (8) receiving touchdowns. In the red zone, Henry has a 30% target share. For that reason, I love him. The Broncos are also 18th versus tight ends.

Evan Engram is not a high-volume player. He is 2nd on the team in total targets, but only 12% in target share. Engram has just (1) touchdown on the year and a low Average Depth of Reception of (9.2) yards. Regardless of the matchup, Engram is a no-go.

Defense/Special Teams

The Broncos have a decent defensive matchup in here. They are 1st in Sacks per Game, while the Patriots are 26th in Sacks Allowed per Game. The Broncos do lack much for takeaways, ranking 23rd. They do average 1.9x of their salary in this game. For that price, I do not hate it. They should get to Maye, and Maye does lead the NFL in quarterback fumbles.

The Patriots matchup worse. They are 15th in Sacks and 10th in Takeaways per Game. The Broncos are the NFL's best in Sacks Allowed per Game. They are 9th in Giveaways.

Start the Broncos Defense for great value.

Kicker: Andy Borregales vs Wil Lutz

Denver will have pleasant weather, although cold. For kickers, it will not be bad with clear skies and low wind.

Andy Borregales is 84.4% accurate on the year. He does attempt below-average at (1.9) Kicks per Game. Given the volume and accuracy, he is still more likely than not to make every single kick, and 2+ at that.

Wil Lutz is 87.5% accurate on the year. He has the same volume (1.9) as Borregales. He is use-able, as is Borregales. However, remember that kickers are always highly owned in these contests.

Andy Borregales and Wil Lutz can be used.