Super Bowl LIX: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles Player Projections

Philadelphia Eagles Wide Receiver DeVonta Smith | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The Philadephia Eagles can run, but they can't hide from the mystique of the great Patrick Mahomes who did more with less than any other quarterback in the league in 2024. Kansas City won 11 games by seven points or fewer while scoring more than 30 points once (32 vs. the Bills last week). Now, let's look at each team's projections for Super Bowl LIX.

2024 Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl Projections

Shawn Childs

From a pure stats projection against the Eagles, Patrick Mahomes is on a path to pass for 207 yards with 1.55 touchdowns. Due to his ability to make plays in the red zone, I upped his passing TD total to two for this game.

The Eagles defense allowed 6.0 yards per pass play this year with 22 touchdowns and 41 sacks. I attached an image below to show Philly's strength of passing schedule for their defense. Philly didn't allow a touchdown to a tight end over their first nine games. The Bengals (9/105), Ravens (11/105/2), and Commanders (8/64/1 - 14/138 in the playoffs) exposed their defense in this area over the second half of the season. Tampa Bay (20/240/2) and the Los Angeles Rams (23/233/2) had the most success with their wideouts.

Shawn Childs

Chiefs Running Back Snap Percentages Over the Past Four Games:

KC RB Kareem Hunt - 43%, 48%, 47%, and 58%

KC RB Isiah Pacheco - 35%, 32%, 31%, and 29%

Based on the above info, the edge in running back playing time for Kansas City favors Kareem Hunt. Their matchup against the Eagles had a projection of 56% of a rushing score. I rounded this number down to 50%.

Chiefs Wide Receiver Snap Percentages Over the Past Four Games:

KC WR Xavier Worthy- 80%, 85%, 82%, and 82%

KC WR Marquise "Hollywood" Brown- 27%, 40%, 67%, and 65%

KC WR JuJu Smith-Schuster - 50%, 94%, 41%, and 58%

KC WR DeAndre Hopkins - 49%, 47%, 31%, and 18%

KC WR Justin Watson - 34%, 97%, 8%, and 17%

Based on the the Chiefs' wide reciever usages of late, JuJu Smith-Schuster could be the DFS value. Xavier Worthy is their best receiving option over his last five games (32/378/4 on 44 targes and 11 rushes).

2024 Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl Projections

Shawn Childs

Jalen Hurts has one passing touchdown or fewer in 11 of his 18 games. His matchup vs. the Chiefs gave me 1.65 passing touchdowns. I rounded that number down to 1.5.

The Chiefs defense allowed 7.0 yards per pass attempts in the regular season while giving up 24 passing scores and 38 sacks. They struggled with TEs in three games (BAL - 11/125/1, CIN - 14/151, and LV - 11/145/1). Ther Broncos wideouts had 18 catches for 237 yards and four touchdowns in Week 18, thanks to Kansas City resting players.

Shawn Childs

The running back show for the Eagles is pretty straight forward. Saquon Barkley is a workhorse back, but he won't catch many ball as Philliy doesn't feature their running backs in the passing game. This matchup suggests 1.5 rushing touchdowns. I stuck with that outcomes, but I wouldn't be surprised by two scored on the ground with even split between Barkley and Jalen Hurts. Kenneth Gainwell left his last game with a concussion and he isn't practicing. I gave his minimal oppotrtunity to Will Shipley.

Eagles Wide Receiver Snap Percentages Over the Past Four Games:

PHI WR A.J. Brown - 91%, 93%, 97%, and 89%

PHI WR DeVonta Smith - 80%, 90%, 90%, and 83%

PHI WR Jahan Dotson - 94%, 57%, 62%, and 55%

---

The Chiefs' offense averages 6.4 plays per possesion while averaging 29.09 second per play.

Philadelphia's offense averages 6.1 plays per possesion while averaging 29.65 second per play.

Offenses playing a little quicker against the Eagles' defense (5.6 plays and 28.2 second per play).

Kansas City's defense will give up long drives (6.1 plays per possesion/29.06 second per play).

Recommended Articles

Super Bowl LIX: Top Eagles Sleeper DFS Target

Super Bowl LIX: Top Chiefs Sleeper DFS Target

2025 Super Bowl Kansas City vs. Philadelphia: Top Eagles DFS Value Play