Perfect Week 15 TNF FanDuel DFS Lineup: Bucky Irving, Kyle Pitts Offer Huge Volume
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Not every game can be a 10/10, but we will not complain. Football is football, and I will gladly watch it in any form. Tonight, we have the Falcons heading to Tampa Bay to face their division rival, the Buccaneers. Baker Mayfield has recently struggled, but they still expect to win this game in tandem with the return of Mike Evans. On the other hand, Kirk Cousins looks to salvage another contract as the Falcons play-caller. We see tremendous DFS value to leverage, and that is what we will look towards today.
Best MVP/Captain Picks
Irving is going to be a very high-upside, explosive player to use. There are a ton of lucrative options on this slate, so ownership should not be too aggressive. Irving averages a very high-usage rate around 30-35% Touches per Offensive Team-Snap. He is +115 to score a touchdown and projected to record >20 Receiving Yards.
Robinson may be owned higher than Irving, but likely still under 30% in the MVP slot, if not less. Robinson averages over (20) Touches per Game and will be a big-play threat, as big as anyone in the NFL. He is averaging a monsterous (5.0) Yards per Attempt and (2.9) Red Zone Touches per Game
If we take any Wide Receiver, it might be one of high touchdown-upside. Mike Evans will lead the charge with 30%, or so Red Zone Target Share. Since the start of 2024, Evans is 10-of-18 in the Red Zone with (8) Touchdowns.
As Evans will see Terrell, Godwin may eat in the slot, as will Egbuka out wide. Both players will see Target Shares well above 20% and around 20% in the Red Zone. Egbuka is averaging (14.9) Yards per Reception, much more explosive than Godwin's (12.1) Yards per Reception.
Kyle Pitts is working to (9) Targets per Game over his last two games with Cousins, or a 29% Target Share. However, Pitts only has (5) Red Zone Targets on the season, or a 12% Target Share.
Best MVP/Captain Picks
- Bijan Robinson ($19,500)
- Bucky Irving ($18,900)
- Mike Evans ($15,900)
- Emeka Egbuka ($14,400)
- Chris Godwin ($13,500)
- Kyle Pitts ($12,600)
Quarterback: Kirk Cousins vs Baker Mayfield
Cousins in no longer in his prime, but he can still provide. In his three starts, Cousins is averaging (198.3) Yards per Game on top of (3) Touchdowns and (3) Interceptions. He will go out slinging the ball.
The Buccaneers are 29th versus Quarterbacks and 19th versus Wide Receivers. Cousins should enter a pass script, if he does not exceed early. I expect volume, we just need efficiency. The Falcons are 17th in Red Zone Conversion Rate, but they only have about a 39% Red Zone Pass-Rate. They are without Drake London, who has over 25% of Red Zone Targets.
Mayfield is playing poor football, ranking 36th/37 in Completions over Expected. He has no more than (18) Completions in a game since Week 10, prior to his injury.
From Week 7 forward, Baker Mayfield ranks 36th of 37 in both EPA and CPOE among QBs with 80+ passes, ahead of only JJ McCarthy.
— Brandon Anderson (@wheatonbrando) December 7, 2025
For reference, the four names just ahead of him are Justin Fields, Davis Mills, Carson Wentz, & Dillon Gabriel. pic.twitter.com/jObfmgOZ66
We expect Mayfield to average about 200-215 Yards per Game in his current form, with Evans back. The Falcons are 19th versus Quarterbacks and 22nd versus Wide Receivers. They have too much depth to fail miserably. Mayfield does rush for about 20% of Team Rushing Yards, but he only has (1) Rushing Touchdown on the year.
Kirk Cousins ($10,400) and Baker Mayfield ($12,200) are riskier, lower-ceiling Quarterbacks.
Best Running Back Picks
Robinson is averaging (19.56) FanDuel Points per Game, or 1.5x of tonight's salary. He has 4-of-11 Team Red Zone Rushing Touchdowns, losing part to Allgeier. However, Robinson is a high-volume player with (20.8) Touches per Game.
The Buccaneers are 20th versus Running Backs and Robinson scored (24.4) FanDuel Points in their Week 1 meeting.
Allgeier is working to about 25% of Falcons Team Rushing Yards. He is averaging (3.5) Yards per Attempt to Robinson's (5.0). Allgeier and Robinson do have a dead 50-50% Red Zone Split. Allgeier is much more touchdown reliant.
Irving is back in a big way. In his two games back from injury, Irving is averaging (18) Touches per Game, (81) Total Yards per Game, and (2) Total Touchdowns. This is all while averaging just 51% of snaps played, and that will be due to increase tonight.
Sundays are better when we get to watch Bucky Irving play footballpic.twitter.com/5XAB7vQzku
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) December 7, 2025
The Falcons are 18th versus Running Backs and Irving scored (12.5) FanDuel Points in their first meeting.
Best Running Back Picks
- Bijan Robinson $13,000
- Bucky Irving $12,600
Best Wide Receiver Picks
Darnell Mooney may be considered a high-upside option, but do not be fooled. Mooney has a 16% Target Share in his last two games without Drake London. He also expects a Red Zone Target Share well under 20%.
David Sills V and Dylan Drummond may be high-upside sleepers, but that is all that they are. With Cousins, I am concerned on their overall upside.
Mike Evans is working in a 30% Red Zone Target Share and he should work to a 25% overall Target Share. There is no bigger touchdown threat among Wide Receivers than Evans is in the NFL. The Falcons are 22nd versus Wide Receivers and AJ Terrell should be shadowing Evans tonight.
Mike Evans is 32 years old returning from a strained hamstring, concussion, and broken collarbone.
— Underdog Picks (@UnderdogPicks) December 10, 2025
He is projected more receiving yards than Emeka Ebguka this week. pic.twitter.com/XiizWeIEET
Emeka Egbuka has been struggling with drops, but his volume remains high. Egbuka is working in a 27% Target Share. With Evans back, he will be around 22-25% of Targets, which still bodes well if he does not drop the ball. I prefer volume over all, so we like Egbuka, especially escaping Terrell in coverage.
Chris Godwin will work above a 20% Target Share as well. He has >80 Yards in his last two games, much better than Egbuka. He may be better trusted, as well in a great matchup away from Terrell. In fact, Godwin plays in the slot, so he definitely will go zero bit of Terrell. Outside of Terrell, this is one of the worst secondaries in football.
Best Wide Receiver Picks:
- Emeka Egbuka $9,600
- Chris Godwin $9,000
Best Tight End Picks
It is trending that Pitts will play, so we will plan as if he does play. In his last two games with Cousins, Pitts has (18) Targets, (13) Receptions, and (172) Yards. He has rarely ever seen this kind of volume in his career, so we love it. Cousins has historically favored Tight Ends (TJ Hockenson, Tyler Conklin, Jordan Reed).
Kyle Pitts 👀📈 https://t.co/0KtunT6vWr pic.twitter.com/cyeS63fYUh
— MJC (@MJCLocks) December 10, 2025
Cade Otton will be out tonight for the Buccaneers. This elevates Payne Durham to TE1, but this will mean nothing. Durham is not a threatening pass-catcher at all, and this passing offense will run exclusively through the Wide Receivers and Running Backs. Durham would be lucky to catch >1 ball.
Kyle Pitts ($8,400) is the only Tight End to play, but he does have tremendous upside.
Best Sleeper Picks
David Sills V ($6,400)
Sills has (4) Targets in each game with Cousins, and also without London. This is a 13% target Share. However, he does also have (3) Red Zone Targets, so Sills could be a longshot touchdown scorer, perhaps worth a shot in a DFS slate of high-salaried options.
Dylan Drummond ($4,800)
Drummond has indentical statistics to Sills over his last two games. (8) Targets and (3) Red Zone Targets. For Drummond, both numbers increased in his last game, so he could be seeing an even bigger role, perhaps nearing on WR2 status for now.
The Buccaneers have too much depth to consider any sleepers. I would not look to anyone besides their staple playmakers.
Defense/Special Teams
This is where both units rank in key offensive and defensive metrics:
Falcons | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
Sacks Allowed (O) | 5th | 11th |
Giveaways (O) | 14th | 7th |
Sacks per Game (D) | 3rd | 13th |
Takeaways (D) | 11th | 3rd |
Both units matchup moderately. The Falcons project to get pressure, but they face a 13th best Pass Protection. The Buccaneers seek turnovers, but the Falcons are 11th best in not turning the ball over.
The Falcons are averaging 1.1x of tonight's salary ($6,000). The Buccaneers are averaging 0.95x of tonight's salary. The over/under is set at an average score of 44.5, with the Buccaneers projected to win by (5.5) points. Both units scored <3 FanDuel Points in their first game.
Both defenses lack enough upside to use.
Kicker: Zane Gonzalez vs Chase McLaughlin
Gonzalez has a short sample size this season, but he has been relatively good. Gonzalez is 10-for-12 with both misses from beyond 50 Yards. He is averaging (2.4) Attempts per Game. We will have very calm weather tonight, boding well for both kickers.
McLaughlin is 24-for-28 on the season. (3) misses have been beyond 50 Yards, so he is not too bad. McLaughlin is generally an average kicker. He does get good conditions, and he does average (1.9) Attempts per Game.
Zane Gonzalez ($6,200) and Chase McLaughlin ($6,600) are moderate options. Gonzalez offers slightly better value.
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.