2025 Fantasy Baseball: Joe Ryan Profile, Preview, Predictions
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Joe Ryan comes off a shoulder injury that didn't require surgery. Triston McKenzie hasn’t been the same pitcher since suffering a similar injury two seasons ago.
Joe Ryan's 2Ks in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/Oo7KpmgCU8
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 6, 2024
SP – Joe Ryan, Min (ADP – 95.3)
Ryan corrected his ERA (3.60) and WHIP (0.985) last season, but his season ended in early August due to a right shoulder issue (a partial tear of the teres major muscle). He didn’t have surgery, and the Twins reported that his issue cleared up via an MRI in November. This injury (grade 2) typically takes about three months to recover.
Over his first 17 starts in 2024, Ryan went 5-5 with a 3.21 ERA, 0.965 WHIP, and 110 strikeouts over 103.2 innings. He allowed more than four runs in one game (7/12 – five runs and nine baserunners over 5.1 innings) on the season while completing at least five innings in all but his final appearance (two innings).
Home runs (1.4 per nine – 1.3 in 2024) allowed have been a problem for him every year with the Twins. Ryan has been a fly-ball pitcher (50.1%) in his career. Last season, he did a much better job keeping batters off time up in the strike zone, highlighted by a lower fly-ball rate (45.4) and a spike in infield flies (19.0% - 7.9 in 2023).
His average fastball (94.0) was a career-best in 2024. Ryan added a low-volume sinker (.357 BAA) while seeing his split-finger fastball reclassified as a changeup (.202 BAA) with similar usage (22.1%). Ryan creates his wins with his four-seamer (.195 BAA with 80 strikeouts) with a solid slider (.244 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: The overall skill set for Ryan projects higher in the fantasy market if he can solve his issues with home runs. His strike-throwing ability creates a built-in edge in WHIP. He did see his strikeout rate drop by 1.2 per nine innings, a signal that I want to fade in 2025. For me to invest in Ryan, I don’t want to see him getting banged around in spring training, and he must keep his fastball velocity in line with his career path in March. Triston McKenzie hasn’t been the same pitcher since suffering a similar injury two seasons ago.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
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