2025 Fantasy Baseball: Luis Castillo Profile, Preview, Predictions
In this story:
The missing link in Luis Castillo's pitching profile has been his lost changeup, which needs a spin dry to unlock another gear in his arm. Many Seattle Mariners starting pitchers added a split-finger fastball over the past couple of seasons, a pitch that Castillo may need to regain more consistency.
Luis Castillo's 2Ks in the 3rd. pic.twitter.com/0jQjixIY4e
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 17, 2024
27 – Luis Castillo, SEA (ADP – 90.2)
Since arriving in Seattle, Castillo has unlocked his command (2.5 walks per nine – 3.3 with the Reds) while repeating his success in his strikeout rate (9.7 – 26.4%). Last year, he lost one strikeout per nine innings, with more struggles with home runs (1.3 per nine). A hamstring issue in September last season led to him missing the final three weeks.
Over his 30 starts in 2024, Castillo had three pockets of negative stats:
- 3/28 to 4/8: 12 runs, 29 baserunners, and two home runs over 15.2 innings with 18 strikeouts.
- 6/8 to 6/30: 19 runs, 37 baserunners, and four home runs over 26.1 innings with 22 strikeouts.
- 8/17 to 8/23: nine runs, 14 baserunners, and five home runs over 11.1 innings with 15 strikeouts.
He posted a 2.29 ERA over his other 122.0 innings with 120 strikeouts. His failure was due to massive issues with left-handed batters (.275 with 20 doubles and 18 home runs over 316 at-bats). Castillo had a strikeout rate under 8.0 in May (7.9), June (7.6), July (7.7), and September (7.2).
His average fastball (95.7) lost about 1.5 mph over the past two years. For some reason, he started throwing his changeup less in 2023 (15.6%) and 2024 (14.3%) while averaging higher than 30% with this pitch from 2019 to 2021. Castillo had success with his four-seamer (.202 BAA) and slider (.206 BAA), but both options were weaker vs. left-handed batters (.256/.255). For his arm to rebound this season, he must improve the value of his sinker (.298 BAA) and changeup (.294 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: The Mariners starting pitchers added a split-finger pitch to their arsenal over the past few seasons. Based on the direction of Castillo’s changeup, a grip change or new pitch may be required to pump some life into his arm against left-handed batters. When his changeup was more relevant, he was a high-volume groundball pitcher. His change in approach led to more fly-balls (42.2% and 40.0%) over the past two seasons, compared to under 27.0% from 2019 to 2021. From 2017 through 2021, Castillo had an elite changeup (.174 BAA and .275 SLG).
I’ve highlighted his recent weakness, so the fantasy market must pay attention to his spring work in March to see if he does indeed upgrade his off-speed pitch in 2025. Do the time or face the crime of making a bad investment.
More Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings
The Top 5 Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball in 2025
Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Pitcher 6-10
Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Rankings: 11-15
2025 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Middle Round Starting Pitchers to Target
With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
Follow Shawn__Childs