Arizona Diamondbacks Fantasy Baseball Sleepers and Breakouts
The Diamondbacks scored a ton of runs last year, leading to a winning season but one game away from the playoffs. This year, they have two sleeper arms competing for saves and along a crowded outfield that offers some winning upside if given enough playing time.
Deep Sleeper: Pavin Smith, Arizona Diamondbacks
Smith has the feel of a player who needs a starting job in the majors, but he has to prove his worth against left-handed pitching (.226/31/4/37 over 261 at-bats). His path to starting playing time will come at DH while competing with the Diamondbacks' three left-handed outfield options. Possible .280/80/20/80 player with 500 at-bats.
Sleeper Jake McCarthy, Arizona Diamondbacks
The dilemma to answer about McCarthy this season comes between his minor profile (potential .300/100/17/85/47 player) and his limp power bat with the Diamondbacks and questionable opportunity. He ranked seventh in sprint speed (29.8) in 2024, giving an unknown ceiling in stolen bases.
His on-the-field battle for at-bats is with Alek Thomas. A total wild card, but a player that could surprise in all areas if given 550 at-bats. McCarthy is just hitting the prime of his career, so don’t lose track of his play in spring training (10-for-43 with four runs, one RBI, and three steals) and the coach-speak about his playing time in 2025.
Sleeper: A.J. Puk, Arizona Diamondbacks
Puk became an elite reliever over his final 43.2 innings (one run, 24 baserunners, 68 strikeouts, and four wins) last season, but he gave up the lead in two of four save situations. Over his hot streak, he had a sensational walk rate (1.6) with an electric rise in his strikeout rate (14.0 – 41.8% for the year).
The finish by Puk last year screams closing opportunity, but he may have to wait for Justin Martinez to trip up in the ninth inning. His first-pitch strike rate (66) was a career-best, and Puk has 22 saves over the past three seasons.
He's a tempting cheat closing option, but his ADP has a better feel in 10 and 12-team formats. If the Diamondbacks name Martinez as the closer in spring training, Puk should slide in drafts, creating a better buying opportunity.
Sleeper: Justin Martinez, Arizona Diamondbacks
When adding a high groundball rate (58.9) to his ability to strike batters out, Martinez isn’t far off from being a dominating, trusted late-inning arm. Unfortunately, his free passes will get him in trouble and create many bad innings. Arizona will give him chances at saves, and he may survive for a month or two when he is in rhythm. I expect WHIP risk early in his career. Martinez’s upside does outweigh his failure risk.
This spring, Martinez allowed three runs and six baserunners over six innings with nine strikeouts. A.J. Puk has been slightly better this March (one run and six baserunners over six innings with nine strikeouts. Arizona has yet to name a closer this spring.
Breakout PItcher: Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks
Pfaadt looks poised to be a much better arm in his third year in the majors. His 2024 resume is loaded with disaster starts, with hints of greatness. His command is ace-ready, but he must locate his pitches better within the strike zone and solve left-handed batters. Next Step: a sub-3.50 ERA with a push toward 15 wins and 200+ strikeouts. Giddy Up!
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.