Cincinnati Reds Fantasy Baseball Sleepers and Breakouts
If the Cincinnati Reds' star players stay healthy this year, I expect them to win the NL Central. Their roster has multiple rising sleepers and breakout players.
Deep Sleeper: Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds
Injuries have gotten the best of Lodolo over three seasons with the Reds. He had a sharp decline in his strikeout rate (9.5 – 11.6 over his first two years in Cincinnati), but his pitch per plate appearance (3.8) was career-low while also improving his first pitch strike rate (66.3). Of all the pitchers in my SP5 grouping by ADP, Lodolo has the highest ceiling.
He’s crushed some of my fantasy teams over the past two seasons, but I know a special season is coming if the Reds can keep him on the field for 32 games. Lodolo’s within range of a sub-3.00 ERA with 200+ strikeouts. On the downside, batters have been hit by him 44 times in his 47 career starts.
Breakout Player of the Year: Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Cincinnati Reds
I’m sticking with my 2024 outlook for him this year: The Reds need a cleanup batter in the worst way, and Encarnacion-Strand’s bat screams put me in coach. His minor-league approach is strong enough to give Cincinnati what they need in power while not being a trainwreck swing-and-miss bat. When putting the ball in play, his contact batting average grades him as an elite player, supported by his Statcast metrics.
At the very least, he is a .270 hitter with 80 runs, 30 home runs, and 90 RBIs, and I expect him to get 500 at-bats. If you don’t see him as a value fantasy option, someone just picked your pocket.
Value: Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds
His success in 2023 between AAA and the majors outperformed his scouting report. His ADP (65 – 38th hitter) was higher heading into last season. I see a pullback in his batting average (in the .270 range) until his approach aligns with his previous success. The Reds gave him 50 at-bats in the Arizona Fall League (.240/12/4/12/1 with 21 strikeouts).
McLain was on a path to a 20/30 season with a high floor in runs and RBIs, but his recovery from shoulder surgery may lead to lower expectations in power. He will gain outfield eligibility in 2025.
Breakout Ace: Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds
If Greene didn’t have the injured elbow blemish on his 2024 resume, he would be the smash arm to chase this draft season. His best two pitches are elite and will be even better with improved command. Adding a split-finger pitch offers difference-maker upside when ahead in the count and more development time.
In spring training, I expected Greene to be a big mover up draft boards. He's allowed 10 runs and three home runs over 16.0 innings with 22 strikeouts. Greene is a swing-for-the-fences type pitcher in contests with an overall prize.
Foundation Stud: Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds
De La Cruz finished fifth in FPGscore (9.50) for hitters last year. With an improved swing path and a lower strikeout rate, his ceiling in power and batting average would be much higher. He wants to run, and his overall skill set is excellent.
I set his bar at .270 with 100+ runs, 30+ home runs, 85+ RBIs, and a floor of 50 stolen bases. His desire to steal could lead to over 80 bags in 2025.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.