Fantasy Baseball: Breakout and Sleeper Outfielders With Stolen Base Upside

A rabbit base stealer can offer an edge to fantasy teams if he runs when in the lineup and his light-hitter power doesn’t crush their team structure in home runs and RBIs. In addition, he must be priced fairly on drafts.

Deep Sleeper: Sal Frelick, Milwaukee Brewers

The outfield rotation for Milwaukee looks messy in spring training, forcing one option to see time at DH or have Frelick earn playing time in the infield. In the offseason, he bulked up to add more pop to his swing, but Frelick still brings a Judy hitter profile until more balls go over the fence. I like his speed upside, and his approach could push him to the top of the Brewers’ lineup. He is a player to follow in shallow formats while offering rotation value in 15-team formats when he’s stealing bases.

Deep Sleeper: Jacob Young, Washington Nationals

Young looks poised to earn the bulk of at-bats for Washington in centerfield this season. He offers impact speed that should translate into a top-5 player in stolen bases this year if given 500+ at-bats. Even with two elite power-only batters on a roster, Young’s lack of home runs and RBIs will eat away at that edge over a long baseball season.

If the shoe fits and is priced right, this gump investment may return a winning piece to a fantasy team if timed properly. There is something to be said about having a base stealer in waiting on the bench in the high-stakes market.

Breakout Upside: Garrett Mitchell, Milwaukee Brewers

Heading into 2025, Mitchell projects as a platoon player until his bat proves its worth against lefties. He doesn’t profile as a middle-of-the-order bat at this point of his career, and Milwaukee will surely bat Jackson Chourio and Christian Yelich in the top two spots in their lineup. His contact batting average with the Brewers (.431) offsets some of his batting average risk due to his high number of strikeouts.

Mitchell plays well defensively while having the tools to offer a 20/30 profile if given 550 at-bats. I expect a better swing path this season, and his best fantasy value may come over the second half of the season.

Sleeper: Jake McCarthy, Arizona Diamondbacks

The dilemma to answer about McCarthy this season comes between his minor profile (potential .300/100/17/85/47 player) and his limp power bat with the Diamondbacks and questionable opportunity. He ranked seventh in sprint speed (29.8) in 2024, giving an unknown ceiling in stolen bases. His on-the-field battle for at-bats is with Alek Thomas.

A total wild card, but a player that could surprise in all areas if given 550 at-bats. McCarthy is just hitting the prime of his career, so don’t lose track of his play in spring training and the coach-speak about his playing time in 2025.

Breakout Player: Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox

Rafaela had his AAA development year in Boston last year, suggesting a much better season in 2025. His minor league resume paints a higher picture of power and stolen bases while offering a free-swinging approach. His defense is a huge plus, and he also saw time a 2B (5), 3B (4), and shortstop (82) last year. The Red Sox gave him 500 of his 544 at-bats (91.9%) in the eighth and ninth slots in their batting order, which lowers his ceiling in runs and RBIs.

Rafaela ranked 72nd in FPGscore (-0.15) for hitters in 2024. He's a sneaky cheat at shortstop/outfield with the tools to be a .270/80/20/75/30 hitter in his sophomore campaign, making Rafaela an excellent target based on his price point (114th hitter drafted in early March).

Deep Sleeper: Sal Frelick, Milwaukee Brewers

Deep Sleeper: Jacob Young, Washington Nationals

Breakout Upside: Garrett Mitchell, Milwaukee Brewers

Sleeper: Jake McCarthy, Arizona Diamondbacks

Breakout Player: Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox

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