Fixing the Second-Worst MLB Trade Ever—The Cubs/Cardinals Heist That Changed Baseball
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On June 15, 1964, the Chicago Cubs shipped left fielder Lou Brock and relievers Jack Spring and Paul Toth to the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for starters Ernie Broglio and Bobby Shantz, and outfielder Doug Clemens, a cringeworthy one-sided decision that sent the Cubs into a decades-long tailspin, while elevating the Cardinals to one of the National League’s elite.
Even 60-plus years after the trade, Cubs fans get ulcers when Brock is brought up. But we can make the stomach pain go away. At least for a few minutes.
Fantasy Sports O.G. Works Its Magic
Before Rotisserie Baseball was a thing, Strat-O-Matic was (more or less) the sole source for your fantasy sports fun. The game, which was created in 1961, didn't rely on what was happening that day, that week, or that month, but rather past performances. SOM took any given player's stats from any given single season then let their numbers people do their thang.
SOM games were determined by several hundred dice rolls, and MLB nerds (like me) played entire 162-game seasons, which, as you can imagine, cut into our real baseball viewing time.
But it was worth it.
These days, the dice rolling paradigm is still in effect, but we also have these things called computers that can make things happen a whole lot quicker, so we can easily answer questions like, How would the annals of baseball history been altered if the Brock has spent his career getting lots and lots of hits, and stealing lots and lots of bases for the North Siders?
A Brief History of Terrible Baseball Trades
It's little solace to Chicago fans, but the Cubs weren't alone in putting together garbage deals.
- 1900: Cincinnati Reds sent Christy Mathewson to New York Giants in exchange for Amos Rusie. Oops.
- 1920: Boston Red Sox sent Babe Ruth to the New York Yankees for cash. D'oh.
- 1965: Cincinnati Reds sent Frank Robinson to the Baltimore Orioles for Milt Pappas. Oy.
- 1971: New York Mets sent Nolan Ryan to the California Angels for Jim Fregosi. Seriously?
If you're ranking the sheer crappiness of these five eternally crappy moves, Brock/Broglio comes in second, right behind the Babe Ruth crap.
And 50,000 Cubs fans just punched a hole in their wall.
The Base Burglar Was Good At Reality Baseball
Savvy speedster Brock retired with all-time stolen base crown and a .293 career average that would’ve looked great in Wrigley Field and points north, south, east, and west. But it wasn't meant to be, as the Hall of Famer helped lead the Cards to three pennants and a pair of World Series crowns.
But to answer the above $64,000 question, we'll need to take a gander at Strat-O-Matic's slick computer output. First, a couple of notes:
- SOM's simulation slightly increased Brock’s batting average to .294 from .293, his OPS from .760 from .753, his stolen base total to 953 from 938, and his runs scored to 1,713 from 1,610.
- His simulated 1967 numbers would've easily him the MVP: We're talking 46 doubles, 30 home runs, 52 stolen bases, a .320 average and 118 runs scored. My goodness.
As for the teams’ respective fortunes, the SOM simulation had the Cubs winning the World Series in ‘67, finishing 100-61 and outlasting the Boston Red Sox in seven games. Brock was huge in the Series, slashing .300/.344/.533, with a pair of dingers and three steals.
The Cardinals didn’t make the pretend ‘64 Fall Classic—the Cincinnati Reds instead took out the New York Yankees in six—and they also fell to the Tigers in seven in 1968.
The Brock-less Strat-O-Cardinals rebounded to advance to the NLCS in 1973, losing to Cincy. The following season, they took down the Los Angeles Dodgers in the LCS before bowing to the Oakland A’s in a epic seven-game World Series.
The Base Burglar Would've Been Good at Fantasy Baseball
And now, the cold, hard numbers…
Dayum. To quote every Cardinals fan ever: Loooooooouuuuuuuu.
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-82121a1351894b8089c555f4b4b69420-1d609352940036e7455770363a74a2e9.png "Alan Goldsher")
Alan Goldsher has written about sports for Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Apple, Playboy, NFL.com, and NBA.com, and he’s the creator of the Chicago Sports Stuff Substack. He’s the bestselling author of 15 books, and the founder/CEO of Gold Note Records. Alan lives in Chicago, where he writes, makes music, and consumes and creates way too much Bears content. You can visit him at http://www.AlanGoldsher.com and http://x.com/AlanGoldsher.