Hunter Brown 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook: The Rise of the Astros' New Ace

Hunter Brown’s post-April dominance and expanding pitch mix make him one of the best SP values in 2026 fantasy drafts.

Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown (58) delivers a pitch against the Seattle Mariners during the first inning at Daikin Park. | Erik Williams-Imagn Images

Hunter Brown’s long-anticipated breakout finally arrived in 2025, rewarding fantasy managers who bought in early with elite production and frontline numbers. Now, with improved command and one of the deepest arsenals in baseball, Brown enters 2026 poised to make the leap from breakout star to true fantasy ace.

SP8 – Hunter Brown, Houston Astros (NFBC ADP – 41)

Brown was my 2025 Breakout Pitcher of the Year, and he ended up being worth the investment. He finished 9th in FPGscore (6.07) for pitchers.

When the lights came on for 2024, Brown buried fantasy teams in ERA (9.78) and WHIP (2.217) by the end of April due to three poor outings (20 runs, 29 baserunners, and four home runs over nine innings). For the remainder of the season, he delivered ace stats (11-5 with a 2.51 ERA, 1.122 WHIP, and 155 strikeouts over 147.0 innings). Brown did have two other disaster showings (12 runs, 22 baserunners, and two home runs over 11.0 innings with 13 strikeouts) over this span.

Last year, Brown pushed an ERA (2.43) to an elite level with growth in his command and a rebound in his strikeout rate (10.0). Despite his success, he did have one red flag on his resume – 55.6% first-pitch strikeout rate (61.8% overall). To have repeated results in 2026, Brown must throw more strikes, especially on the first pitch. He overcame this shortfall by being more challenging to hit (.201 BAA – .242 in 2024 and .262 in 2023).

Who would you rather have for the next 3 seasons?

Hunter Brown
Christopher Sanchez pic.twitter.com/jlmrgmpLF1

— SleeperMLB (@SleeperMLB) January 22, 2026

Brown had the same success in ERA (2.43) before and after the All-Star break. His most dominating month came in June (1-0 with four runs, 25 baserunners, and 39 strikeouts over 30.1 innings). He also had an edge ERA in April (1.22) and August (1.67). Brown allowed two runs or fewer in 25 of his 31 starts while pitching at least five innings in all but one game.

His average fastball (96.6 mph) was the best of his career. Batters struggled to hit his four-seamer (.181 BAA) while dominating with three other rotational pitches (curveball – .149 BAA, changeup – .188 BAA, and slider – .195 BAA). His sinker (.258 BAA) was about league average, but Brown started to phase out his cutter (45 pitches - .500 BAA ~ 333 pitches in 2024 with a .208 BAA).

Hunter Brown 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: The sum of Brown’s arsenal is special, with an electric ceiling once he figures out how to throw strike one on his first pitch. His ADP falls in a favorable range, suggesting a value ace. I expect growth in his strikeouts, helped by more length in his starts. Next step: 15 wins with plenty of help in ERA and WHIP.

Top 5 Fantasy Baseball Pitchers According To ADP

Check out the top five pitchers according to ADP from our friends at the NFBC:

1. Tarik Skubal
2. Paul Skenes
3. Garrett Crochet
4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
5. Christopher Sanchez