Top Five National League Cy Young Candidates: Fantasy Baseball Breakdowns

During his debut campaign in 2024, Paul Skenes made an immediate and dominant impact, capturing National League Rookie of the Year honors and delivering one of the most impressive rookie performances in recent memory. His electric arsenal and poise on the mound set him apart as a rising star in Major League Baseball.

As the 2025 season approaches, anticipation surrounding Skenes has reached new heights. The Pittsburgh Pirates’ emerging ace is widely regarded as a frontrunner for the NL Cy Young Award in just his second season. After posting an outstanding 11-3 record with a stellar 1.96 ERA and an impressive 11 strikeouts per nine innings, Skenes is expected to take on a full workload this year, further solidifying his status as one of the league’s premier pitchers.

Although Skenes is the favorite, there are plenty of other pitchers who can give him a run for his money. Let’s take a look at the five heaviest favorites in the National League Cy Young betting market, according to FanDuel Sportsbook and their respective fantasy baseball outlooks heading into 2025:

SP Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (+200)

Skenes is the next big thing in fantasy baseball and a player worth fighting for in drafts. He is the first pitcher drafted in 2025, with a first-round ADP in the high-stakes market. The Pirates allowed him to throw 90+ pitches in 18 of his 23 starts in his rookie season, including 15 consecutive games.

Paul Skenes, 85mph Backdoor Sweeper (called strike) and 99mph Fastball (Swinging K), Overlay. pic.twitter.com/ac2R8tf3d9
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 11, 2025

Skenes possesses the attributes of a true workhorse, with his developmental trajectory likely positioning him to exceed 190 innings in 2025. Given his elite strikeout ability and command, a 15-win season with 240+ strikeouts is well within reach, along with significant contributions in ERA and WHIP. If the Pirates are unable to secure him with a long-term extension, they have every incentive to maximize his workload early in his career. Additionally, should his changeup continue to develop, his strikeout ceiling could rise even further, elevating his potential to finish 2025 as fantasy baseball’s most dominant arm.

SP Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (+600)

Over the past five seasons, Zack Wheeler has established himself as one of the most dependable starting pitchers in fantasy baseball, compiling a 59-32 record with a stellar 2.94 ERA, 1.031 WHIP, and 899 strikeouts across 829.1 innings. His consistency and durability have made him a cornerstone for fantasy rotations.

In 2024, Wheeler delivered a career-best season, leading the National League in WHIP (0.955) while setting personal highs in wins (16) and ERA (2.57). Opposing hitters struggled mightily against him, managing just a .192 batting average, and his exceptional 8.7:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio further underscored his dominance.

Interestingly, Wheeler’s last two campaigns were nearly identical in key statistical categories, with one notable difference—his 2023 season saw him surrender over one additional earned run per game. Despite this, his overall production remained comparable, as he allowed a similar number of total bases, walks, and hit batters (315 in 2023 versus 297 in 2024), despite logging eight more innings in the latter season. Wheeler turns 35 in May with minimal changes in his base skill set.

SP Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers (+1000)

The Dodgers rewarded Snell with a new five-year deal for $182 million deal in November. Throughout his career, Snell has maintained an elite strikeout rate of 11.2 K/9—the highest in MLB history, narrowly surpassing Chris Sale (11.1 K/9). However, while his ability to generate swings and misses is undeniable, his efficiency and workload limitations have capped his fantasy upside. His innings per start remain a concern, averaging just 5.2 in 2024, 5.7 in 2023, and 5.1 across his last 137 outings, limiting his potential volume in both strikeouts and wins.

Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodger.

(via @MLB)pic.twitter.com/kttsDvHgWu
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) February 25, 2025

With Los Angeles boasting a deep starting rotation and bolstering its bullpen this offseason, Snell is unlikely to see many opportunities to work beyond the sixth inning in 2025. Additionally, his elevated walk rate (3.8 BB/9) presents a risk to WHIP and could lead to shorter outings. That said, his new team’s high-powered offense should provide ample run support, positioning him for a strong chance at a 15-win season with 200+ strikeouts across roughly 170 innings of work.

SP Corbin Burnes, Arizona Diamondbacks (+1500)

From 2020 to 2022, Corbin Burnes was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, posting a stellar 27-14 record with a 2.62 ERA, 0.964 WHIP, and 565 strikeouts across 428.2 innings. During this stretch, he led the National League in ERA (2.43 in 2021) and strikeouts (243 in 2022), solidifying himself as a premier fantasy ace.

In 2024, Burnes reached a career-high in wins (15) while recording an ERA below 3.00 for the fourth time in his career. However, opposing hitters posted a .229 batting average against him—the highest mark he has allowed in five years. His lone rough patch came in August, where he struggled to a 7.36 ERA and 1.597 WHIP across 25.2 innings. Long balls became a concern during the summer months, as he surrendered 14 home runs over a 91.2-inning span, slightly dampening his otherwise strong season.

The Diamondbacks signed Burnes to a six-year $210 million contract in late December. He appears to be a discounted ace compared to his price over the previous few seasons. I sense an injury coming, putting Burnes in my avoid column.

SP Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves (+1700)

The Braves made a shrewd move in acquiring Chris Sale last season, and it paid off in spectacular fashion. His resurgence to elite form was punctuated by an NL Cy Young Award, as he led the league in wins (18), ERA (2.38), and strikeouts (225). Additionally, for the fourth time in his career, he topped his league in strikeouts per nine innings (11.4), reaffirming his status as one of the game's most dominant arms.

Based on his command stats, Sale was the same pitcher in 2024 as in his prime. The only difference was his downgrade in innings pitched per start (2024 – 6.1 ~ 6.9 from 2013 to 2017). Atlanta unlocked the life of his pitches in the strike zone last season, and he avoided any major injuries.

Between 2020 and 2023, Chris Sale was limited to just 31 starts, posting an 11-7 record with a 3.93 ERA and 182 strikeouts across 151 innings. Despite those durability concerns, his career track record and impressive resurgence make him an enticing option, particularly with the backing of a high-powered offense. Even with a full workload of 32 starts, his numbers suggest there’s still untapped potential for further improvement.

Best Bet: Paul Skenes (+200)

Longshot Wager: Chris Sale (+1700)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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SP Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (+200)

SP Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (+600)

SP Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers (+1000)

SP Corbin Burnes, Arizona Diamondbacks (+1500)

SP Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves (+1700)

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