A.J. Brown Super Bowl LIX Projections

Can A.J. Brown beat his previous Super Bowl game (6/96/1) against the Kansas City Chiefs?

Over three seasons with the Eagles, Brown has been a dynamic wideout who offers big play and scoring ability. Unfortunately, in 2024, there have been too many games (7) where he’s had a minimal opportunity in targets (5, 6, 4, 6, 4, 5, and 3). The Eagles looked his way 115 times (7.2 per week) this year over 16 games (including the postseason), leading to 76 catches for 1,119 yards and eight touchdowns. His opportunity was down 19.1% from 2022 and 2023 (8.9 targets per game).

Brown gained more than 100 yards in five contests (5/119/1, 6/116/1, 5/109, 6/109/1, and 8/110/1) while scoring more than 20.0 fantasy points (PPR) in three other matchups (5/89/1, 8/97/1, and 6/96/1). His bust (25.0%) and boom (50.0%) rates favor big-game outcomes. He had more than six catches in only two games (8 and 8).

Here’s a look at his Super Bowl projections:

Five catches for 75 yards with a 50% chance of scoring

18.55 fantasy points in PPR formats

Wide Receivers had 207 catches for 2,359 yards and 18 touchdowns on 318 targets (65.1% catch rate and 11.4 YPC) against Kansas City in the regular season. Three offenses gained over 200 yards from their wideouts (BUF – 17/210/1, Carolina – 16/207/1, and DEN – 18/237/4). The Broncos’ success at wide receiver was helped by Kansas City resting their best players in Week 18.

The Chiefs' best cornerback, Trent McDuffie, wants to keep wide receivers in front of him, but he will allow some damage in touchdowns. Jalen Hurts should beat the KC’s secondary for at least one score to a wide receiver.

How many wide receivers gained over 75 yards against the Chiefs in 2024?

· Rashid Shaheed (4/86/1)

· David Moore (6/81/1)

· Jakobi Meyers (6/97)

· Joshua Palmer (6/78)

· Jerry Jeudy (11/108)

· Tank Dell (6/98/1)

· Courtland Sutton (5/98/1)

· Nico Collins (5/81)

How many wideouts had more than six catches?

· Darnell Mooney (8/66)

· Khalil Shakir (8/70)

· Jerry Jeudy (11/108)

· Nico Collins (7/60)

Who were the top wide receivers to post below-par games?

· Zay Flowers (6/37)

· Ja’Marr Chase (4/35)

· Brandon Aiyuk (2/23)

· George Pickens (3/50)

What were the other top games by wideouts with a touchdown?

· Drake London (6/67/1)

· Ladd McConkey (5/67/1)

· Courtland Sutton (6/70/1)

· Curtis Samuel (5/58/1)

· Quentin Johnson (5/48/1)

· Mack Hollins (3/73/1)

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