Jalen Hurts Super Bowl LIX Projections

When looking at each week’s matchup data to tweak each player’s projections, the Eagles have been a challenging team for me to handicap on the passing touchdown side due to their ability to shove the ball into the end zone at the goal line. Coming into the Super Bowl, Hurts has 21 passing scores and 18 rushing touchdowns. From my data, his opening line was 1.65 passing touchdowns and 1.5 running the ball. Here’s his projections for the Super Bowl:

21-for-30 for 246 yards with 1.5 passing touchdowns and one interception

He has a 75% chance of scoring in the run game while on a path to 33 more yards on eight carries.

Hurts missed two games late in the season with minimal playing time in Week 16. He scored two rushing touchdowns or more in four of his 17 complete games. From Week 8 to Week 10, Hurts scored over 30.00 fantasy points each game (37.50, 32.20, and 33.70), with winning outcomes in two other matchups (32.00 and 35.90). His best passing game (311/0) came in Week 3. Hurts never had more than two passing scores in a game.

After deducting his short stats in Week 16, here’s a look at his average production each game:

10 rushes for 41.8 yards and 1.1 touchdowns

17.3 completions on 25.1 passes for 199.8 yards with 1.2 touchdowns and 0.3 interceptions

24.50 fantasy points in 4-point passing touchdowns formats and 0.05 yards per passing yard

On the defensive side of the ball, quarterbacks passed for 3,980 yards and 24 touchdowns against the Chiefs. They allowed 7.0 yards per pass attempt with 38 sacks, seven fumble recoveries, 13 interceptions, and one defensive score.

Lamar Jackson had 16 carries for 122 yards in Week 1, but Kansas City didn’t allow more than 55 rushing yards to any other quarterback. Most of their other failure came in four matchups (SF – 8/27/2, BUF – 12/55/1, PIT – 6/55/1, and DEN – 9/54). Two teams passed for 300 yards (LV – 340/2 and DEN – 321/4). The latter was helped by Kansas City resting players.

Quarterbacks averaged 22 completions on 33.5 attempts for 233.5 yards and 1.4 touchdowns. Kansas City gave up 11 rushing touchdowns (four to quarterbacks – 4.9 yards per carry).

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