Historical Analysis on Super Bowl Squares (New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks)

After many clicks through previous Super Bowl games to get the scoring data, I put together win percentages for all scoring combinations in the first quarter, second quarter, third quarter, and final score. Hopefully, none of my six dogs stepped on my mouse, creating an unforced error in this tedious project.

I’ve chased around Super Bowl squares or boxes for many decades, and it’s hard to believe this is the 60th Super Bowl. My best win ($5,000 on a $100 investment) came when I won the final score in 1993. A couple of years later, I picked up two quarters at the same restaurant (Michell’s Steak House) for another $1,500.

Over the past two decades or so, the square game has been a losing battle. At $200 a pop, I’ve given away my profits every year. Having some side action on the Super Bowl always adds some extra drama for NFL fans whose home teams never seem to make it to the big dance.

2026 Super Bowl First Quarter Square Win Percentages | Shawn Childs

In the first quarter, only 17 combinations of squares have won.

· Anyone with a one, two, or five for the away team has yet to earn a win.

· There is only one win for four and eight columns (road team), both tied to a zero by the home time.

· If you draw a one, two, five, six, eight, or nine for the home team, your number has been drawing dead over the previous 59 Super Bowls in the first quarter.

· A zero on the home team line has the highest win rate (52,5%), followed by three (20.3%) and seven (18.6%)

· The same combination of numbers is the best for the away team: zero (39.0%), seven (25.4%), and three (23.7%).

· Top combo: 0/0 – 23.7%

The following chart will show the winners and percentages for the second quarter.

2026 Super Bowl Second Quarter Square Win Percentages | Shawn Childs

· The zero/zero edge is lost in the second quarter: only two wins in 59 chances.

· The top combo in the second leg of the Super Bowl is home (0) and road (3). Their win rate is 8.5%.

· Sixty-five squares don’t have a win in the second quarter,

· The best row or column is zero for the home team (33.9%). Zero and three were the best columns, accounting for 23.7% of the wins.

As the game moves to the third quarter, 59 combinations of numbers haven’t cashed a ticket in 59 Super Bowls. Here’s a look at their table:

2026 Super Bowl Third Quarter Square Win Percentages | Shawn Childs

· The seven for the home team has been the most profitable in the third quarter (27.1% - 16 wins). 7/0 has won four times.

· Of the remaining 43 winners, three home/seven away have three wins. No other combo has more than two victories.

· A zero for the away team was won 22.0% of the time in the third quarter.

In the history of the Super Bowl, there have been two overtime games. Some Super Bowl pools use the fourth quarter as their payout rather than the final score. For my exercise, I used the data from the final score. Here’s the final score winners:

2026 Super Bowl Final Score Square Win Percentages | Shawn Childs

· For the giddy zero/zero drawers, that square has never won the final score.

· The best home team number has been zero and one (16.9% win rates each).

· A seven for the away team has won 20.3% of the time.

· Only two combinations of numbers have won three times (home – 0/away – 7 and home – 4/away – 7).

· Fifty-seven squares have yet to make a trip to victory lane for the final score.

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