Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl LIX Projections

Considering his preseason quarterback ranking, Patrick Mahomes was a fantasy bust in 2024. He finished the season ranked 11th in fantasy points (333.30) in four-point passing touchdown leagues, a few spots below two waiver-wire players – Sam Darnold (7th) and Bo Nix (9th).

Mahomes scored fewer than 20.00 points over his first six games, followed by six other games at a similar level over his final 12 starts. His best game of the season came last week against the Buffalo (33.55 fantasy points – 288 combined yards with three scores). He only had one other winning fantasy day on the year (31.45 fantasy points).

For the Super Bowl, I have Mahomes projected for these stats:

24-for-36 passes for 207 yards with two touchdowns and one interception

Four rushes for 22 yards

18.53 fantasy points (4-point passing TDs and 0.05 fantasy points per passing yard)

Over his 18 games player this year, he averaged 23.7 completions, 35.1 pass attempts, 241.7 yards, and 1.56 passing touchdowns. His rushing stats per game came to 4.2 carries for 20.2 yards, with a 22.2% chance of scoring.

On the defensive side, the Eagles held quarterbacks to 3,266 passing yards and 22 passing touchdowns. Quarterbacks averaged 31.9 passing attempts while gaining a league-low 6.0 yards per pass attempt. Philadelphia ranked 2nd in wide receiver yards allowed (2,192) and first in yards given up to tight ends (591). Their defensive success (on the field the least in 2024) was helped by the Eagles’ offense finishing second in time of possession (9:10:26). Philadelphia had 41 sacks, 13 fumble recoveries, 13 interceptions, and one defensive score.

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