Saquon Barkley Super Bowl LIX Projections
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For anyone looking for a deep dive into Saquon Barkley's Super Bowl matchup against the Chiefs, Fantasy On SI provides some data and insight about his outlook.
The Eagles’ offense rode the back of Barkley to the Super Bowl. They gave him 378 touches in the regular season, leading to 2,283 combined yards with 15 touchdowns and 33 catches. In the postseason, he added another 364 yards, five touchdowns, and four catches. Despite an epic year rushing the ball, one that should have passed Eric Dickerson, Barkley finished second to Jahmyr Gibbs in fantasy points in PPR formats (363.90 to 356.30). The Eagles had him on the field for 71.1% of their plays over their 20-game schedule.
Here are his projections for the Super Bowl:
- 18 rushes for 104 yards and a 75% chance of scoring a rushing touchdown
- Two catches for 16 yards
- 18.51 fantasy points in PPR leagues
In the regular season, Barkley scored 79.0% of the Eagles’ running back fantasy points (444.70 – PPR formats). Over his 19 games played in 2024, he averaged 21.6 rushes for 128.8 yards and 0.95 touchdowns per game. His passing opportunity came to 2.1 catches for 16.5 yards with a 10.5% chance of scoring via a catch. Barkley only has 13 catches for 56 yards (4.3 yards per catch) on 18 targets over his previous eight matchups.
Running backs had 316 carries for 1,197 yards (3.8 YPC) and seven touchdowns against Kansas City. Their Chiefs didn’t allow a back to score in the passing game while defending them well in catches (61) and receiving yards (413). Opponents gained 10% of their passing yards from running backs.
In the end, opposing running backs averaged 18.6 rushes for 74 yards with a 41.2% chance of scoring each week. In addition, they had 3.6 catches for 24.3 yards.
Barkley had 21 rushes of 20 yards or more, with 10 gaining at least 40 yards. Kansas City will try to slow him down with their standard defense in this matchup to force the Eagles to run more plays to score instead of stacking the box and inviting a long rushing touchdown. Both offenses play relatively slow, inviting longer drives and a faster-moving clock.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
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