2025 NFL Draft Fantasy Football Rookie Fades

As the 2025 NFL Draft approaches, several highly-touted prospects may struggle to make an immediate impact due to concerns over their skills and development. From quarterbacks to wide receivers, these players may be seen as projects, requiring significant refinement before reaching their potential in the NFL.

Fantasy Football Rookie Quarterback Fade

Riley Leonard, Notre Dame

After a dull career over three seasons at Duke (382-for-619 for 4,450 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions), the Fighting Irish gave Leonard the keys to the offense last year. He responded by setting career highs in completions (269), passing attempts (403, and completion rate (66.7), but gained only 7.3 yards per pass attempt. On the positive side, Leonard went 14-2 while losing in the National Championship game.

Notre Dame rode his legs (184/906/17) last year, an area Leonard also excelled in 2022 (124/699/13). He scored two or more rushing touchdowns in four matches and gained over 100 yards on the ground twice (11/100/3 and 12/143/2). The Fighting Irish gave him double-digit rushing attempts in 13 games. Last year, Leonard had ankle surgery before and after the season.

He is a first-read quarterback with low game-manager value in the passing game. He looks the part in size (6’4” and 215 lbs.), but Leonard doesn’t have enough experience or sway to handle a high-volume passing attack at the next level despite some improvement last year.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard (13) throws a pass against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the second half in the CFP National Championship college football game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Leonard played behind an excellent offensive line that allowed him to be sacked 20 times. He threw the ball well off play-action passes in close due to defenses gearing up to stop the run. His vision and shake as a runner were favorable, but Leonard will face tighter running lanes in the NFL. There were many plays where he was already on the move to run the ball after his third step back from center hit the ground.

At best, Leonard is a project at quarterback in the NFL. Leonard must improve his defensive reads and gain experience working through his pass progression before being considered for a starting opportunity.

Fantasy Football Rookie Running Back Fade

Dylan Sampson, Tennessee

The Volunteers gave Sampson a part-time opportunity over the first two seasons (58/397/6 with three catches for 24 yards and 106/604/7 with 17 catches for 175 yards and one touchdown). In 2024, Tennessee gave the keys to their running back opportunity, leading to 1,634 combined yards, 22 touchdowns, and 20 catches on 278 touches. He gained over 100 combined yards in 11 of his first 12 starts before suffering a hamstring injury in his final game against Ohio State.

His 40-yard dash speed (4.42 – Volunteer Pro Day) aligns with the top two running back prospects in this year’s draft class. Sampson comes in at 5’8” and 200 lbs. with a low floor in pass-catching expectations and questionable value in picking pass rushers.

Sampson did most of his dirty work at the goal line between the tackles. He runs with patience and a feel for spacing on the inside while following his blocks to the second level of the defense. I didn’t see enough wiggle in space or foundation of moves to make defenders miss in the open field, forcing Sampson to create his win with his legs on most plays.

An NFL team will consider him just another running back due to his lack of third-down ability and questionable explosiveness running in tighter lanes at the next level. I expect him to get selected on Day 2 in the NFL draft by a team with a proven running back.

Fantasy Football Rookie Wide Receiver Fade

Matthew Golden, Texas

The Houston Cougars gave Golden 17 starts over his first 19 games in 2022 and 2023, resulting in two quiet receiving seasons (38/584/7 and 38/404/6). He made more significant plays (15.4 YPC) in his freshman year than this year (10.4 YPC). A foot injury in his sophomore campaign led to three missed games.

After transferring to Texas, Golden made 16 starts with career highs in catches (58), receiving yards (987), and touchdowns (9). He gained an impressive 17.0 yards per catch. In his college career, Golden returned 28 kickoffs for 722 yards and two scores (25.8 yards per return).

The foundation of Golden’s route running has flaws at each level. He must work on his salesmen skills while showing more fight and desire at the top of his release. His lack of timing can lead to poor hand positioning when the ball arrives more quickly than expected. He ran a 4.29 40-yard dash at the NFL combine, showcasing his deep speed.

Texas Longhorns wide receiver Matthew Golden (2) catches a long pass for a first down near the end zone in the fourth quarter as the Texas Longhorns play the Arizona State Sun Devils in the Peach Bowl College Football Playoff quarterfinal at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, Jan. 1, 2025. | Sara Diggins/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Last year, Texas got Golden the ball many times well beyond the line of scrimmage, but Quinn Ewers rarely hit him in stride, forcing him to make challenging catches coming back to the ball. With the ball in his hands, Golden lacks sufficient experience with his vision to be a top run-after-the-catch player despite showing success returning kicks.

At the next level, an NFL team will start his development as an outside home run threat, but he does have the tools to play all over the field. I don’t see enough in his resume to warrant a first-round selection this year, but a team need is a team need. At the very least, Golden will get better with experience.

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