Buy, Sell, Or Hold: Evaluating Brian Thomas Jr.’s Rest Of Season Outlook

Brian Thomas Jr. has struggled with Trevor Lawrence through two weeks, leaving fantasy football managers wondering whether to hold, trade, or panic entering Week 3.

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (7) reacts to his first down pickup during the second quarter of an NFL football matchup Sunday, Dec. 29, 2024 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Through two weeks of the 2025 fantasy football season, Brian Thomas Jr has looked a lot like he looked last year with Trevor Lawrence. As fantasy owners, most of us just shook off the fact that BTJ was significantly better with Mac Jones as his quarterback last season than he was with Lawrence. The two never seemed to have any chemistry, but we just took it for granted that they would figure it out, and maybe they will. Nevertheless, that hasn't been the case so far through two weeks this season.

Through two games, Thomas Jr has only managed to secure five of his 19 targets for 60 yards from Lawrence. In 2024, he went off for 87 receptions on 133 targets, 1,282 yards, and 10 touchdowns. However, 60 receptions on 95 targets for 762 yards and five touchdowns came with Jones throwing him the ball. Lawrence started 10 games last season and Jones seven. Put in perspective, those can be really scary numbers for a fantasy owner to see, considering the draft capital you spent on Thomas Jr.

Should Fantasy Football Managers Panic About Brian Thomas Jr.?

We wouldn't panic, but it's reasonable to be concerned. There is clearly something missing between Thomas Jr and Lawrence. We have seen drops, miscommunications, and off-target passes. Five receptions on 19 targets is unacceptable. At this point, all you can really do is hope that these two get on the same page. You don't want to sell low, and you certainly aren't going to bench him. However, it wouldn't be crazy to sell high on him if he has a big game and someone offers you a haul. Just understand the risk you'd be taking if you were to trade him, because he could easily catch fire and become a dominant fantasy wide receiver.  

If things don't pick up by Week 4, it may become time to reevaluate this situation. Currently, he is fourth on the team in receiving yards, and he's not even behind first-round rookie Travis Hunter, whom everyone was worried about cutting into his work.

Jacksonville Jaguars Top Pass Catchers Through Week 2

Their top three receiving leaders are Dyami Brown, Brenton Strange, and Parker Washington. It's hard to imagine that continues. With that said, there is also the possibility that Hunter emerges and has a great connection with Lawrence. A lot can still change in this offense over the next few weeks, but you are just going to have to ride it out unless someone blows you away with a trade offer. 

Brian Thomas Jr. Preseason Analysis

Prior to the season, Senior Fantasy Expert Shawn Childs had this to say about the Jacksonville Jaguars star receiver:

After two low-production seasons (28/359/2 and 31/361/5) at LSU, Thomas made the best of his improved opportunity in 2023. He caught 68 passes for 1,177 yards and 17 scores, averaging 17.3 yards per catch. Over his 13 starts, Thomas gained more than 100 yards in six contests (7/142/1, 5/133/2, 8/124/3, 3/122/2, 6/150/2, and 4/103/1). Thomas has the look of a player somewhere between Mike Williams and Randy Moss. 

In his first season with Jacksonville, he caught 87 of his 133 targets for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns. Thomas has five targets or fewer in five of his first 11 starts, while delivering two winning days (5/122/1 and 5/87/1). Over this span, he averaged 12.98 FPPG or a mid-tier WR2 in PPR formats. The Jaguars gave him double-digit targets in each of his final six matchups, leading to a high floor in each game (4/87/1, 8/86, 10/105/2, 9/132/1, 7/109/1, and 7/103 ~ 22.98 FPPG). Thomas finished fourth in wide receiver scoring (284.00) in PPR formats.

A healthy Trevor Lawrence and a new offense scheme should lead to new highs in all receiving categories. He ranks seventh at wide receiver in mid-June, making him an intriguing value. His natural progress should be 100+ catches for 1,500 yards and double-digit touchdowns. 

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Childs was very clear about BTJ's upside and fantasy football managers probably shouldn't overreact to the young receiver's slow start. But this is certainly a situation to monitor in Week 3 and beyond.