Why Christian McCaffrey Is The 2025 Fantasy Football Bust Of The Year

Every fantasy season, a first-round player who was a stud the previous year turns in a bust year. Draft temptation is always simmering based on the last season’s stats, and dreams of catching another impact season. Unfortunately, injuries are a huge factor in fantasy football, especially for early-round players due to replacement costs.

Here's a look at the top busts over the past six seasons:

2024 – Christian McCaffrey (RB), San Francisco 49ers

He scored 393.30 fantasy points in PPR formats in 2023, more than 100.00 fantasy points higher than the second-best back (Breece Hall – 290.50). CeeDee Lamb (405.20) was the best wide receiver, followed by Tyreek Hill (377.80).

All four of these players underperformed expectations last season, but McCaffrey was the bust of the year by a wide margin. He scored only 48.80 fantasy points while drawing top ADP for much of the summer before fading later in the fantasy draft season due to his lingering calf/Achilles injury.

2023 – Austin Ekeler (RB), Los Angeles Chargers

After leading the NFL in fantasy scoring at running back in 2022 (375.70 – PPR formats), Ekeler was a first-round bust the following year while delivering about 50.4 cents on the dollar (189.40 fantasy points) with no games with more than 20.00 fantasy points and five missed contests.

Justin Jefferson also tripped up due to an injury (seven missed games), but he scored over 20.00 fantasy points in six of his 17 starts. Josh Jacob also failed to match his previous success in fantasy points (329.30) in 2023 (182.30) while drawing a late first-round ADP.

2022 – Jonathan Taylor (RB), Indianapolis Colts

After a magical 2021 season (332/1,811/18 with 40 catches for 360 yards and two scores – 377.10 fantasy points), Taylor managed to stay on the field for only 11 games the following year, leading to 149.40 fantasy points.

2021 – Derrick Henry (RB), Tennessee Titans

The Titans rode Henry to a great rushing season in 2020 (378/2,027/18 with 19 catches for 114 yards), but he missed nine games the following year. Cook was the second player off the board in 2022 in many leagues after delivering 1,918 combined yards with 17 touchdowns and 44 catches. He finished 10th in running back scoring (242.10 fantasy points).

2020 – Christian McCaffrey (RB), Carolina Panthers

After gaining over 1,000 yards rushing (287/1,387/15) and receiving (116/1,005/4) in 2019, he crushed fantasy teams the following year (474 combined yards, with six touchdowns and 17 catches) due to missing 13 games.

2019 – Saquon Barkley (RB), New York Giants

In his rookie season, Barkley gained 2,028 combined yards with 15 touchdowns and 91 catches (383.80 fantasy points in PPR formats). The following year, as the first player drafted in many leagues, he missed three games while scoring 244.10 fantasy points.

The 2025 Fantasy Football Bust of the Year

The great Mike McDermott said it best in the Rounders movie, “If you can’t spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker.”

In the case of fantasy football, which player will crush your dreams? Is that player coming off a career season? Does his success on the field warrant a first-round pick?

Christian McCaffrey is my Fantasy Bust of the Year.

Based on talent, Christian McCaffrey is a beast with a special skill set. Unfortunately, his hard work in his career has led to numerous calf issues, and an Achilles tag on his 2024 injury status suggests another significant injury is looming. If he ever added JUICE to his body development, it tends to come with a price down the road.

Temptation based on the ceiling of a player is sometimes worth the gamble in fantasy football, especially if a drafter plans on playing in many leagues. At the same time, a sliding player in a draft doesn’t necessarily mean he is an excellent value buy.

In this case, drafters are avoiding McCaffrey due to his past injury risk by hopefully rostering a younger player moving in an upward direction. At some point, he will be worth a swing. The same drafter avoiding him in the first round could be more willing to roster McCaffrey the following round, making the wise guy, risk-averse drafter in one round and the fast and loose gambler in round two.

McCaffrey has the talent to be the best running back in the NFL, and he plays in a perfect system for success. His summer reports have been positive. The test for him will come in game action, where more intense running will eventually catch him in 2025. I can’t say when he’ll get hurt, but I would be surprised if he’s not on the field when fantasy championships are won.

Over the past six seasons, McCaffrey has been a losing fantasy investment 60% of the time. He brings a go big or go home profile, with the latter being the most likely outcome this year. Despite my position, I’m still rooting for him to regain his previous form, as his unique skill set should have led to a trip to the NFL Hall of Fame.

Editor's Note: The 49ers acquired Brian Robinson Jr. from the Washington Commanders today.