Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, And 4 More Early-Round Fantasy Football Busts

Who will be the biggest busts from the first two rounds of fantasy football drafts?

Dec 1, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) warms up prior to the game against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

The fantasy football season is among us as the NFL prepares for the regular season kickoff next Thursday. As the Dallas Cowboys gear up to take on the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night, fantasy football GMs are setting their lineups for the upcoming season. 

Some of the NFL’s best players will be picked near the top of fantasy draft boards, some of which will be league-winners, others of which will struggle to find their footing due to injury or other outside factors. 

Last season, San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey was a consensus No. 1 pick in fantasy, prior to an injury-marred 2024 campaign that saw him suit up in just four games. 

But who will be this year’s fantasy bust? Here are players from rounds one and two of the draft board who could finish the season as some of the biggest busts in fantasy (based on FantasyPros data). 

Round 1 Busts

Saquon Barkley, RB - Eagles (ADP - 3.3)

Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (26) before a game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Lincoln Financial Field. | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

This choice might seem a little crazy given Saquon Barkley’s historic 2024 campaign. He notched 2005 rushing yards and helped the Philadelphia Eagles complete their Super Bowl run with a string of dominant playoff performances. 

But it’s not necessarily crazy to question Barkley’s regression in 2025. Looking back to 2022, Barkley appeared in 16 games and notched 295 carries, but struggled in 2023 while missing time. He appeared in 14 games and noticed a dip in his 4.4 yards per carry from 2022, down to 3.9 in 2023. 

Looking to 2025, Barkley’s extensive injury history leaves reason to believe in a slight season of regression for the superstar back this season. Still, he’s well worth your first round pick. 

Christian McCaffrey, RB - 49ers (ADP - 8.7)

There is little to question regarding Christian McCaffrey’s talent. As recently as 2023, the three-time Pro Bowler finished third in MVP voting after a 2023-yard, 21-touchdown performance. There’s plenty to question regarding his availability. 

Last season an achilles injury limited McCaffrey to four games, causing mass hysteria among fantasy GMs alike. On the field, McCaffrey is undoubtedly one of the top players in the game, but as the old saying goes, the best ability is availability. 

Entering the 2025 season, McCaffrey will likely have a lightened workload to start the season, but his injury history leaves plenty to be skeptical about if you’re thinking of selecting him with your first pick. 

Round 2 Busts

Nico Collins, WR - Texans (ADP - 13.3)

Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins (12) reacts to a first down against the Los Angeles Chargers in the second quarter in an AFC wild card game at NRG Stadium. | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The Houston Texans faced some of the biggest injury struggles in the NFL in 2024, losing each of their starting wideouts, including Pro Bowler Nico Collins. 

Despite missing five games, Collins eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark for the second consecutive season. Still, his production dipped noticeably. Prior to his hamstring injury, Collins appeared in five games, averaging 113.4 yards per game. When he returned, his output dipped down to 62.7 yards per game over his final seven games. 

On top of that, Collins is playing in an offense with several other key contributors in Joe Mixon, Tank Dell, Nick Chubb and Dalton Schultz, behind what projects to be a lackluster offensive line.

De’Von Achane, RB - Dolphins (ADP - 14.2)

De’Von Achane burst onto the scene in 2023 during his rookie season, with one of the most memorable fantasy stretches in recent memory. He carried that momentum into the 2024 season, where he eclipsed 1,499 yards from scrimmage and 12 total touchdowns. 

This season, Achane is gearing up for this third season in an offense with plenty of question marks. Miami’s offensive line has worsened, while the receiving corps gained a new mouth to feed in Darren Waller. 

Achane could see regression from his 2024 performance for a team expected to face its share of struggles in 2025. 

Round 3 Busts

James Cook, RB - Bills (ADP 30.2)

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) dives for a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

The Buffalo Bills are slated to be one of the top teams in the NFL once again. Buffalo finished the season as the second-highest scoring offense in the NFL, due in large part to the efforts of James Cook and Josh Allen in the backfield. 

In 2024, Cook finished the season in a three-way tie as the league leader in rushing touchdowns with 16 for the year. Looking to 2025, it seems unlikely the fourth-year back will recreate that caliber of production. 

Cook will share the backfield with second-year back Ray Davis, who showed flashes of immense talent last year. Along with a retooled receiving corps, Cook could be overvalued in the second round of fantasy drafts. 

Breece Hall, RB - Jets (ADP - 36.3)

Breece Hall has been one of the most popular fantasy bust picks of the offseason, and understandably so. The second round is rich for a player whose production dipped last season without real injury. 

New York’s rushing attack will also focus less on Hall in 2025 with the addition of Justin Fields and the rise of second-year back Braelon Allen. 

Though he offers true upside as a receiver, the Jets backfield is likely to divide carries more prominently than any of Hall’s other three NFL campaigns.