Fantasy Football Dynasty Startup Mock Draft: Bijan Robinson (Pick 1.04)

One could argue things won't start to get really interesting in fantasy football dynasty startup drafts this year until No. 4 overall.

With the first three picks of my dynasty startup mock draft, I argued fantasy football managers should select three wide receivers -- Cincinnati Bengals' Ja'Marr Chase at No. 1, Minnesota Vikings' Justin Jefferson at No. 2 and Dallas Cowboys' CeeDee Lamb at No. 3.

It's tempting to go with the next-best receiver with the No. 4 pick. Given the much higher injury risk and shorter shelf life of running backs, they don't hold a lot of value at the top of dynasty draft boards.

However, Atlanta Falcons' Bijan Robinson is an exception.

With the No. 4 pick of a 2025 PPR dynasty startup league, I would select Robinson.

Pick 1.04: RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

There are two main things any running back going in the first round of a startup dynasty league has to have -- durability and versatility. Robinson has both in droves.

In two NFL seasons, Robinson hasn't missed a game. During his college career, he was also very dependable with the Texas Longhorns.

There's always injury risk with running backs. But Robinson's finished two NFL seasons healthy while averaging 318 touches per season. At only 23 years old, he has several more years where he can post 300 touches, and the wear and tear on his body shouldn't begin for a few more campaigns too.

Robinson is also a dual-threat. In both of his NFL seasons, he registered at least 58 catches for 400 receiving yards. Robinson also has five receiving touchdowns in 34 career games.

Last season, the Falcons running back posted 1,456 rushing yards while averaging 4.8 yards per carry. But with his receiving yards too, he ended 2024 with 1,887 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns.

Among running backs, Robinson was fourth in yards from scrimmage and tied for sixth in touchdowns. Those rankings don't necessarily scream No. 4 overall pick, but he has the greatest chance of finishing in the top five of both categories for the next several years.

Robinson's production also has a chance to improve not just because he's coming into his prime. The Falcons running back has been one of the best fantasy plays at his position the past two seasons despite inconsistent quarterbacking.

Michael Penix Jr. isn't guaranteed to become a star. But based on how Penix played in the final three games of 2024, there's reason to be optimistic the Falcons found their franchise quarterback.

That could mean fewer carries for Robinson. But in could also mean more receiving chances and opportunities to score.

The Falcons were 13th in scoring points last season. They could be a top 10, or even a top 5 scoring offense if Penix is a star. If that happens, Robinson would become a candidate to lead the league in touchdowns.

Having the No. 4 pick in startup dynasty leagues this summer is somewhat unfortunate because fantasy managers with that selection will miss out on the three receivers in the top tier of players. But the consolation prize is the clear-cut No. 1 running back, who is young, durable, and versatile.

It's nearly impossible to find those three traits in a running back with as much certainty as fantasy managers can have in Robinson.