Fantasy Football Sell-High Candidates Pre NFL Draft

As the 2025 NFL Draft approaches, fantasy managers should start evaluating which players may have already peaked in value. While past production and name recognition can inflate early draft boards, a closer look reveals several high-profile names who may be primed for regression and are worth selling high before the NFL Draft affects their respective values.

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Over his first 89 games in the NFL with the Browns, Panthers, and Rams, Mayfield had a 61.9% completion rate while averaging 228 passing yards with 1.46 passing touchdowns and 0.83 interceptions per game. In his first year with Tampa, he played better than expected, leading to a career-high in passing yards (4,044) and touchdowns (29).

Last season, the Buccaneers moved into the elite area in scoring (502—fourth), which was in line with their success in 2021 (511 points) with Tom Brady behind center. Mayfield finished with 4,878 combined yards, 44 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions despite losing his WR2 after seven games.

Tampa ran the ball much better than expected last season, thanks to the addition and development of Bucky Irving.

Screw it.. Bucky Irving highlights with Free Bird by Lynyrd Skynyrd playing in the background pic.twitter.com/pRn73MuOdr
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) March 28, 2025

In the early draft season, Mayfield is the seventh-ranked quarterback. Mike Evans (18th), Chris Godwin (27th), and Jalen McMillan (49th) were a significant part of Tampa’s wide receiver success (226/2,799/26 on 335 targets) last season, but the fantasy market isn’t fighting for them in early drafts.

The key to Mayfield's growth last year was his ability to get the ball to his running backs (108/894/7 on 121 targets), giving them a top two finish in scoring in PPR formats. The Bucs also featured Cade Otton and tight ends in the passing game (75/803/7 with 107 targets).

Buying players in fantasy sports off career years seldom works out, and one only has to look at the top five draft picks in drafts to see the high failure rate and repeatability by the best player in the game. Mayfield did get better and has plenty of weapons, but I sense that something goes wrong in this offense, leading to Mayfield underperforming his draft value.

De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins gave Achane 281 touches last season, which was a heavy workload considering his size (5’9” and 190 lbs.). His increase in chances was tied to the fade of Raheem Mostert. Miami has a viable RB2 (Jaylen Wright), and they added veteran Alexander Mattison via free agency.

The pass-catching of Achane gives him a high floor in PPR formats, but he must score touchdowns and make big plays to rank with the best running backs in the game. His talent and explosives scream early buy, but should he be treated as a workhorse back?

De’Von Achane is out here paying for Christmas, Hanukkah and New Years for fantasy managers everywhere.

Dropping a 30 pointer in Money Making Week 16.

The league winner in the fantasy playoffs was ALWAYS going to be Achane pic.twitter.com/UA2xJ0ielu
— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) December 23, 2024

In the early draft season, Achane ranks fourth at running back. The Dolphins featured Mostert at the goal line in 2023, leading to 18 rushing touchdowns. Miami has seven draft picks over the final four rounds of this year’s draft, giving them a chance to locate another running back with size.

Nico Collins, Houston Texans

Collins improved steadily over his four years with Houston, but he’s never played a full season. Over his last nine starts in 2024 (48 catches, 642 yards, 5 TDs), he averaged 15.8 PPR points—enough to rank eighth among wide receivers if projected over 17 games. For context, A.J. Brown, despite missing four games, averaged 15.1 PPR points (including playoffs).

Last year, Collins ranked 23rd in fantasy points (210.60), compared to 12th in 2023 (260.40). Playing with C.J. Stroud undoubtedly upped his game, but missed time has to be a factor in his fantasy value and outlook. Over his last 27 starts, Collins averaged 7.7 targets, giving him 16th 16th-best wide receiver opportunity in 2024 and the 19th in 2023. He makes up for this shortfall with big plays and touchdowns.

I understand attraction, but Collins is slightly overpriced for me this year.

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