Week 9 NFL Survivor Pool Strategy: Chargers, Rams and 3 More Winning Picks
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An NFL survival pool is one of the most popular contests for fans looking to add extra drama to the season.
The concept is simple: each week, players pick one NFL team to win. If that team loses, you’re eliminated. If it wins, you move on. However, the catch is that you can’t pick a team more than once for the entire season. The ultimate goal is to outlast everyone else in your pool.
The challenge and the fun come from striking a balance between risk and reward. Grabbing a heavy favorite early in the season might look like the safest survival pool pick, but using up a top contender early can leave you short-handed later. On the flip side, taking a chance on an under-the-radar team could buy you long-term flexibility, but a loss ends your run before it starts.
A smart survival pool strategy is to look beyond the obvious. Many players try to conserve elite teams for tougher weeks, choosing solid but not spectacular matchups early on. It’s a delicate mix of playing it safe while planning ahead.
Whether you stick with the chalk, hunt for value or take a risky swing, your pick can set the tone for the entire season. With all that said, here’s how we’re approaching Week 9:
*Pick percentage is based on Yahoo Sports pick distribution*
Chalk Picks
Rams Over Saints (Pick %: 52% Spread: -14.5)
The Rams are the biggest favorites and the most selected team in Week 9, at a clip over 50%. This is a case where going with the chalk is simply the right choice. Saints rookie quarterback Tyler Shough will make his first NFL start against one of the league’s best defensive fronts. New Orleans has the fourth-worst scoring offense (16 PPG) and gives up the ninth-most points defensively (26.1 PPG). It’s also tied for second in giveaways (12). Shough and the Saints will have their hands full in this matchup, especially with the Rams at home, who are coming off a bye. The Rams likely won’t be favored by more than a touchdown again this season, except in Week 13 vs. the Panthers, making now the time to use them.
Chargers Over Titans (Pick %: 23% Spread: -9.5)
The other Los Angeles team is a chalk pick as well. As the third-highest favorite in Week 9, it faces the 1-7 Titans. Tennessee has the 32nd scoring offense (13.8 PPG) and the 29th scoring defense (28.8 PPG). It also leads the NFL with 13 giveaways. The Chargers are coming off a 37-10 rout of the Vikings on Thursday night. They’re solid on both sides of the ball and face what is a conversation with the Jets for the worst team in the league. The -9.5 spread seems generous. The Chargers face the Raiders in Week 13, but their value is highest in this Week 9 matchup.
Under The Radar Picks
Packers Over Panthers (Pick %: 12% Spread: -13.5)
The Packers are the third-most selected team on Yahoo in Week 9. Many have likely used them already, but if not, their matchup at Lambeau vs. the Panthers is yet another prime opportunity. It’s also likely one of their last. They’re the biggest favorites this week and for good reason. The Panthers are 1-3 on the road this season, and their lone win came vs. the Jets. Although he’s likely in line to play, Bryce Young is dealing with an ankle injury and was ruled out last week because of it. Andy Dalton started in his place and posted the lowest quarterback rating of any signal-caller last week. But the Panthers will struggle either way in this contest, as the Packers have my vote as the most complete team in the NFL.
Lions Over Vikings (Pick %: 4% Spread: -8.5)
The Lions are the perfect under-the-radar pick for those who want to avoid the chalk in Week 9. Detroit has won and covered in all eight meetings with Minnesota under Dan Campbell. It boasts the No. 3 scoring offense (30.7 PPG), and its defense has forced 11 giveaways, which ranks fifth in the NFL. On the other hand, the Vikings have been on a downward spiral. They’ve allowed 32.5 points per game over their last two. Rookie J.J. McCarthy is expected back this week as well. He has just eight quarters of play under his belt and has struggled in all but one of them. Still, the Lions are picked in fewer than 4% of Yahoo leagues.
One Risky Pick
Cowboys Over Cardinals (Pick %: 1% Spread: -2.5)
Dallas is only the eighth-most frequent selection in Yahoo survivor leagues, but I’ve seen other outlets list it as a viable option in Week 9. The Cowboys are at home and boast the No. 2 scoring offense in the NFL, averaging 30.8 points per game. The problem is that their defense gives up the second-most points per game (31.3). Kyler Murray is also expected to return after missing the Cardinals’ last two games. Murray has never lost while playing at AT&T Stadium, the home of the Cowboys. He’s a perfect 9-0, dating back to college and even high school. Murray’s hometown is right outside of Dallas. This is, in many ways, a home game for him. So, despite the Cardinals entering this game on a five-game skid, I’d be cautious with choosing the Cowboys in Week 9.
Check out our top five games to target in fantasy football in Week 9.
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Michael Rovetto previously served as the staff writer for University of Maryland Athletics for nearly two years. There, he wrote, edited and managed all editorial content for all 20 of Maryland's varsity sports on umterps.com. Rovetto is recognized as a College Sports Communicators district award-winning writer. Many of his stories have also appeared on NCAA.org, garnering national attention. Before graduating from Maryland's Philip Merrill College of Journalism in December 2023, Rovetto wrote for PressBox and Terrapin Sports Central, covering Maryland men's basketball and football. He also has experience in broadcasting, previously working as an analyst and camera operator for Big State Sports, and communication, interning for Shell Shock TBT as its Director of Communication & Content Development.