NFL Week 10 Survival Pool Strategy: Panthers, Bills and 3 More Winning Picks
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An NFL survival pool is one of the most popular contests for fans looking to add extra drama to the season.
The concept is simple: each week, players pick one NFL team to win. If that team loses, you’re eliminated. If it wins, you move on. However, the catch is that you can’t pick a team more than once for the entire season. The ultimate goal is to outlast everyone else in your pool.
The challenge and the fun come from striking a balance between risk and reward. Grabbing a heavy favorite early in the season might look like the safest survival pool pick, but using up a top contender early can leave you short-handed later. On the flip side, taking a chance on an under-the-radar team could buy you long-term flexibility, but a loss ends your run before it starts.
A smart survival pool strategy is to look beyond the obvious. Many players try to conserve elite teams for tougher weeks, choosing solid but not spectacular matchups early on. It’s a delicate mix of playing it safe while planning ahead.
Whether you stick with the chalk, hunt for value or take a risky swing, your pick can impact the outlook for the rest of the season. With all that said, here’s how we’re approaching Week 10:
*Pick percentage is based on Yahoo Sports pick distribution*
Chalk Picks
Panthers Over Saints (Pick %: 30% Spread: -5.5)
The Panthers are the top choices this week on Yahoo and for good reason. They’re one of the bigger favorites this week with little future value. Still, there is some degree of risk in picking them. The Panthers likely hold the title of “worst team with a winning record.” This is the first time the Panthers have been favored all season, and in each of the past nine times they've been favored, they've lost. However, Carolina is in a good position in Week 10 against a bottom-two team in the NFL that’s starting a rookie QB. Selecting the Panthers (and them delivering) will be a top option to put players in great shape down the road.
Seahawks Over Cardinals (Pick %: 14% Spread: -6.5)
The Seahawks are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now. At 6-2 and first in the NFC West, their losses have come by less than 10 points combined. They match up against the Cardinals, who’re last in the division, although they’re coming off a statement 27-17 win over the Cowboys on Monday night. Arizona has opted to start Jacoby Brissett after placing Kyler Murray on IR. One can argue that its offense has been better off with Brissett, but he’s still 20-36 as a starter, including 1-2 this season. The Seahawks boast the NFL's top defense and will play at home. This may be a closer game than some expect, but I like Seattle a good bit in this one.
Under The Radar Picks
Bills Over Dolphins (Pick %: 12% Spread: -9.5)
Looking for a good reason to choose the Bills in Week 10? One quick search of Josh Allen’s career stats vs. the Dolphins. The reigning MVP is 14-2 against the Dolphins, including the playoffs, with per-game averages of 269 passing yards and nearly three passing touchdowns. He simply lights up the Dolphins whenever the Bills play them. The two teams met in Week 3, and Buffalo soundly defeated Miami, 31-21, as Tua Tagovailoa threw for just 146 yards, two TDs and an interception. Chances are, players have already selected the Bills, but they’re the biggest betting favorites this week.
Lions Over Commanders (Pick %: 9% Spread: -8.5)
The Jayden Daniels injury changed the entire outlook of the Commanders' season. Marcus Mariota will start going forward, but Washington is already 0-3 this season in games he’s started. The Detroit offense should shred the Washington defense, and the Commanders should have a tough time playing from behind, with Terry McLaurin likely out this week as well. The Lions have several remaining games with high win probability, including Weeks 12, 14 and 16. However, the Lions are lightly selected this week, making them a strong choice if still available. They’re coming off an uncharacteristic loss and have won and covered the spread in 12 straight games after a loss.
One Risky Pick
Colts Over Falcons (Pick %: 2% Spread: -6.5)
According to ESPN Analytics, this is the Colts' highest win probability in any remaining game. However, in my opinion, the Falcons are a “wild card.” They boast one of the better defenses in the NFL this season, and when their offense is hot, they can be a tough matchup for even the league’s best. The Colts are coming off a game where they turned the ball over six times against the Steelers. I wouldn’t expect the same collapse, but Daniel Jones faces an uphill battle in this matchup. Still, the Colts are one of the best teams in the NFL for a reason, and they just added Sauce Gardner. This is also one of the last chances to use Indianapolis, as its future value is limited.
Check out our top five games to target in fantasy football in Week 10.
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Michael Rovetto previously served as the staff writer for University of Maryland Athletics for nearly two years. There, he wrote, edited and managed all editorial content for all 20 of Maryland's varsity sports on umterps.com. Rovetto is recognized as a College Sports Communicators district award-winning writer. Many of his stories have also appeared on NCAA.org, garnering national attention. Before graduating from Maryland's Philip Merrill College of Journalism in December 2023, Rovetto wrote for PressBox and Terrapin Sports Central, covering Maryland men's basketball and football. He also has experience in broadcasting, previously working as an analyst and camera operator for Big State Sports, and communication, interning for Shell Shock TBT as its Director of Communication & Content Development.