NFL Week 12 Survival Pool Strategy: Seahawks, Ravens and 3 More Winning Picks
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An NFL survival pool is one of the most popular contests for fans looking to add extra drama to the season.
The concept is simple: each week, players pick one NFL team to win. If that team loses, you’re eliminated. If it wins, you move on. However, the catch is that you can’t pick a team more than once for the entire season. The ultimate goal is to outlast everyone else in your pool.
The challenge and the fun come from striking a balance between risk and reward. Grabbing a heavy favorite early in the season might look like the safest survival pool pick, but using up a top contender early can leave you short-handed later. On the flip side, taking a chance on an under-the-radar team could buy you long-term flexibility, but a loss ends your run before it starts.
A smart survival pool strategy is to look beyond the obvious. Many players try to conserve elite teams for tougher weeks, choosing solid but not spectacular matchups early on. It’s a delicate mix of playing it safe while planning ahead.
Whether you stick with the chalk, hunt for value or take a risky swing, your pick can impact the outlook for the rest of the season. With all that said, here’s how we’re approaching Week 12:
*Pick percentage is based on Yahoo Sports pick distribution*
Chalk Picks
Seahawks Over Titans (Pick %: 29% Spread: -13.5)
The Seahawks are coming off a disappointing 21-19 loss to the Rams. However, they face the worst team in the NFL this week. The 1-9 Titans have the league’s worst scoring offense per game (14.3) while allowing the third-most points per game defensively (27.3). Their only win was an improbable 22-21 comeback victory over the 3-7 Cardinals in Week 5. On the other hand, Seattle is 5-0 against teams with losing records this season and has won by multiple scores in all but one game. It hosts the Vikings and plays at the Falcons in Weeks 13 and 14, but this week is a gimme vs. the Titans.
Ravens Over Jets (Pick %: 26% Spread: -13.5)
The Ravens are the biggest betting favorites, along with the Seahawks, this week against the Jets. This is Baltimore’s easiest game for the remainder of the season, even with it still having to play the Bengals twice. The Jets boast a bottom-four scoring offense and a bottom-six scoring defense. They’re an easy task for the Ravens, who are on a four-game win streak. According to ESPN’s Eliminator power rankings, the Ravens are also 47-0 all-time as double-digit favorites in the regular season. Tyrod Taylor and the Jets face an uphill battle in Week 12, making the Ravens an easy chalk pick.
Under The Radar Picks
49ers Over Panthers (Pick %: 25% Spread: -7)
The 49ers host the Panthers on Monday Night Football. Although the 49ers are selected in roughly 25% of Yahoo survivor leagues, the spread for this game is not as big as that of other favorites like the Seahawks and Ravens. Bryce Young is coming off a career day against the Falcons, but he and the Panthers’ season-long sample size show a stark contrast between them and the 49ers. San Francisco ranks ninth in the NFL in offensive EPA per play, while the Panthers rank 26th. Young’s success is also directly correlated with playing at home. According to DraftKings Network, he has a 42% career winning percentage in Carolina, compared to 19% on the road. The 49ers should continue their success despite injuries, with Brock Purdy back in this matchup at home.
Patriots Over Bengals (Pick %: 2% Spread: -6.5)
The Lions over the Giants are another viable under-the-radar pick, but chances are, players have already selected them. Even with Joe Burrow likely returning this week, the Bengals will play in Week 12 without Ja’Marr Chase, who was suspended for spitting on Jalen Ramsey. Cincinnati also has the worst defense in the NFL by virtually every metric. New England enters this game riding an eight-game win streak. It’s the hottest team in the NFL, and Drake Maye should have no problem carving up the Bengals' defense. The Patriots have several more usable weeks this season, but that makes them an under-the-radar pick in Week 12.
One Risky Pick
Jaguars Over Cardinals (Pick %: 2% Spread: -2.5)
Looking for a big swing in Week 12? The Jaguars are a viable option, but there’s risk involved. The Jaguars' win or loss in this game directly correlates with which version of Trevor Lawrence they get. The Cardinals have lost seven of their last eight games, and the Jaguars are coming off a 35-6 thrashing over the Chargers. However, the Jaguars are the same team that allowed the Texans to overcome a 19-point fourth-quarter deficit. Jacksonville is also a risky pick, considering they still play the Titans twice (Week 13 & 18) and the Jets in Week 15. The Jaguars are likely better off saved until next week, making them a risky pick in Week 12.
Check out our top five games to target in fantasy football Week 12.
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Michael Rovetto previously served as the staff writer for University of Maryland Athletics for nearly two years. There, he wrote, edited and managed all editorial content for all 20 of Maryland's varsity sports on umterps.com. Rovetto is recognized as a College Sports Communicators district award-winning writer. Many of his stories have also appeared on NCAA.org, garnering national attention. Before graduating from Maryland's Philip Merrill College of Journalism in December 2023, Rovetto wrote for PressBox and Terrapin Sports Central, covering Maryland men's basketball and football. He also has experience in broadcasting, previously working as an analyst and camera operator for Big State Sports, and communication, interning for Shell Shock TBT as its Director of Communication & Content Development.