How Far Should Josh Jacobs Fall in 2026 Fantasy Football Drafts?
Packers running back, Josh Jacobs has been placed on the Commissioner' Exempt List. That means that he will be sidelined from any practice, meeting, and gameplay until further notice. There is no set date for Jacobs' return. It all depends on the ongoing NFL investigation and the court case that was brought, in which Jacobs was charged with two misdemeanors.
We now must do our due diligence on the subject. When might Jacobs return? What is his risk? What is his ranking and fair value in fantasy football? In other words, what the heck do we do? Leave it to us to complete the forensics.
Fantasy Football Impact
A Risk Model is in the works for release later this week. It weights the following:
- Injury Risk
- Depth Chart Volatility
- Offensive Scheme Fit
- General Variance (Trending Upwards or Downwards)
- Age
When running the scale, Jacobs is pulled to be the highest-risk player in all of fantasy football. He narrowly outdoes JK Dobbins and Alvin Kamara.
This means that, at ADP, Jacobs is highly valuable. The risk far outweighs the reward. Even on the NFL's 4th-ranked offense, we cannot be sure that Jacobs is the right guy to have.
The amateur projections see Jacobs missing roughly 6 games. Given his placement on the Commissioner Exemption List, it shows very little confidence that Jacobs will play football any time soon.
Each case is different. For that reason, we cannot quite compare any recent instances of any player being placed on the list on which Jacobs now resides. Nonetheless, the average time spent on the list since 2021 is over 3 games. Most of those cases happened in-season.
Read More on Josh Jacobs' Inactivity:
- Josh Jacobs Placed On NFL Commissioner's Exempt List
- Packers Acquire Kaleb Johnson
- Fantasy Football ADP Risers: MarShawn Lloyd
What the Numbers Say
The latest projections update has taken into account Jacobs' season-long output. The over/under expectation for Jacobs's time spent out is roughly 6 games. However, that number is extremely variable. Jacobs could miss less, and he definitely could miss a lot more games. It would not surprise anyone if Jacobs sat out the entire season.
That brings my projections to list Jacobs' season-long output as the RB37 in PPR and RB39 in Standard formats. In comparison, MarShawn Lloyd ranks as the RB33 in both formats. On a risk-to-reward scale, Lloyd is an eye-catching candidate for upside. Jacobs, of course, is the total opposite.
I would draft Lloyd as high as the mid-to-late 20s. His risk is very low. Even if Jacobs returns in October, his role could see a downgrade relative to its past projection. Should Lloyd compete very efficiently, it is not crazy to tell Lloyd that he earned more of an even split.
In Lloyd's final season at USC, he averaged over 7.0 yards per attempt. Despite a limited sample size, Lloyd also averaged 17.8 yards per reception. The South Carolina transfer was the epitome of explosiveness. The Packers selected Lloyd in the 3rd round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
The final verdict? Draft Lloyd as high as a top-30 running back in fantasy football, or in the 6th-8th round range of 10- or 12-team leagues. Jacobs should be faded until the latter rounds. Do not select Jacobs ahead of Round 10. I would rather wait until Rounds 11 or 12 to take the splash, and only as my backup running back.
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.