Fantasy Football Week 4 Start 'Em Sit 'Em: Terry McLaurin vs. Josh Downs
In this story:
Terry McLaurin is currently just inside the top-40 wide receivers in fantasy football. A few spots ahead of him is Josh Downs. A sharp fantasy manager identifies value at cost. I see both wide receivers as having top-20 upside, making them buy-low options. They are also viable starts in Week 4. Which is going to be better? That is what today's debate is all about.
Defensive EPA Statistics are per draftwithdoug.com
Completion Percentage Statistics are per PFF.com
AS OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON, TERRY MCLAURIN HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE INJURY REPORT: QUESTIONABLE (HAMSTRING). The following is IF McLaurin is active.
The Case of Terry McLaurin
McLaurin's season is one defined by inefficiency. On 22 targets (7.3 per game), McLaurin has just a 45.5% catch rate. Even then, he is the WR37 in fantasy football.
This shows to me that McLaurin may be playing below his peak form of football, but his ceiling is quite high. He leads all Commanders in routes run by more than 8 per game. McLaurin also leads the team in yards (141) and yards per reception (14.1).
The best game yet came in Week 3, when McLaurin caught 6 of 9 targets for 77 yards and a touchdown. All while facing the elite Seattle Seahawks defense.
I believe in normalization. McLaurin will not see a dip in targets due to inefficiency. Rather, he will remain, and that sub-50% catch rate is due to a rise.
In Week 4 fantasy football, McLaurin projects as a WR2 must-start. Specifically, he foresees 7.8 targets, 5.1 receptions, 71.9 yards, and a 45.8% chance of scoring a touchdown. That slots McLaurin ahead of Parker Washington, Josh Downs, and Ladd McConkey.
The matchup ahead is that of the Indianapolis Colts. They rank 8th-worst in Defensive Pass EPA Allowed per Play. The Colts will be strong in their pass rush, which my power rating lists as top-5 in the NFL. They are hard to decipher, truly, as Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward both rank top-10 in Completion Percentage Allowed, and the Colts are top-5 in Man Coverage Rate.
I would define the matchup as one of high variance for McLaurin. He could fall flat for 2-3 receptions on <30 yards, or pop off for 7+ receptions on 10+ targets. The upside is ultimately there for the start, but in a WR3/Flex role in fantasy football.
The Case of Josh Downs
Downs is one of my favorite players in the NFL. He has not quite shone as a star, but he's certainly flashed it. Now that Alec Pierce is on IR, Downs is the WR1 on the team, ranking 11th in PFF Receiving Grade among 85 qualified players.
Downs is a separation beast coming out of the slot. The below showcases that in the same conversation as Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Davante Adams. The route running is as crisp as you may find.
Targets per route run vs. Separation Score for WRs through Week 3, per @FantasyPtsData
— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) September 29, 2026
Which WRs are not only getting open, but also earning targets when they do?
+ JSN 👑
+ P-Wash, Josh Downs 🚀
+ Adams, Evans, and Diggs still got it
+ Marv 📉 pic.twitter.com/SvEs7Crc2l
Now that my "Stan" hype of Downs is over, we can dilvulge into more data points.
Downs has 22 targets, or about a 25% target share this season. It goes for 14 receptions and 186 yards over three games, averaging 13.3 yards per reception. In fact, in Week 3, Downs had a 30% target share in the first game without Pierce on the field.
In this Week 4 London game, I have Downs projected just inside the WR25 range. Downs is ranked just ahead of Jaylen Waddle, Michael Wilson, and Jakobi Meyers. Specifically, he projects to have 6.1 targets, 3.9 receptions, 70.9 yards, and a 39.0% touchdown probability.
Projections will be updated Saturday afternoon to account for injuries.
Though lower in expected volume than McLaurin, Downs does command volume upside. In his two games with a great deal of space, if not wholly without Pierce, Downs had 9+ targets both times in 2026.
The Commanders are an opposing defense that ranks 5th-worst in Defensive Pass EPA Allowed per Play. However, Downs plays over 70% of the time in the slot, where he will heavily face cornerback Amik Robertson.
Robertson is Washington's strongest coverage player, ranking 5th in PFF Coverage Grade and 25th in Completion Percentage Allowed. What I also dislike is that the Commanders play the third-highest rate of zone. Downs, a separation beast, is much better in man looks. In 2026, he averages 4.63 Yards per Run Route in Man, versus 1.00 in zone.
Start 'Em Sit 'Em: Terry McLaurin vs. Josh Downs
Fantasy managers must favor a player's ceiling. While Downs' projection is lower than McLaurin's, he offers the better ceiling. The best reason why? Downs has four red zone targets this season, twice as many as McLaurin.
Not to mention, I do believe Downs is actually the better player. He is playing better right now, as reflected in the earlier advanced metrics. Both players have 12+ target upside. Downs will be the pick this week, although neither star is a bad play.
More Fantasy Sports On SI News:
Add us as a preferred source on Google
Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.