Examining Week 12 NFL Player Props to Optimize Fantasy Football Start-Sit Decisions
One of the most telling bits of information we can use before setting our fantasy lineups is to examine the player props on DraftKings Sportsbook set by the Las Vegas bookkeepers. They tend to know more than most fantasy owners, so their insight is good to have. This is what the DraftKings Sportsbook player props are telling us about some of our key fantasy football options in Week 12.
QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Passing Yards 280+ (-101)
This is a big line for Mahomes, who has been struggling a bit over the past two weeks. DraftKings clearly believes he's poised to bounce back against the Indianapolis Colts this week. He has by far the highest line of any quarterback this week. The next closest is Jared Goff at 260+ (+103). If you were having concerns about Mahomes's recent struggles, this line would suggest that you shouldn't.
QB JJ McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings
Passing Yards 190+ (-105)
You can chalk it up to inexperience or lack of talent, but either way, McCarthy has been terrible. Vegas is reflecting that in his passing yards line. While no one is starting McCarthy this week, a lot of people are relying on his weapons like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, and Aaron Jones. This could cause fantasy owners to want to think about starting some of these options. Especially Hockenson and Addison.
RB Woody Marks, Houston Texans
Rushing Yards 70+ (+110)
This is the first time that Vegas seems confident that Marks is the lead rusher for the Texans. We can confirm this by the fact that Nick Chubb's rushing yard prop is set at just 25+ (+110). They also expect him to have a solid game on Thursday Night Football against a Buffalo Bills defense that has not been good against running backs this season.
RB Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders
Rushing Yards 60+ (-101)
DraftKings is not expecting a bounce-back this week against a tough Cleveland Browns defense. This is a low-line for a bell-cow back projected to potentially be playing in a positive game script. You may not be able to bench Jeanty this week, but temper expectations if he's in your lineup.
WR Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals
Receiving Yards 60+ (-103)
This is a great line for fantasy owners who are relying on Wilson this week. His line is set right on par with receivers like AJ Brown, Jameson Williams, and Alec Pierce this week. While he may not repeat his massive Week 11, it looks like he should still be a strong fantasy option.
WR Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers
Receiving Yards 70+ (+124)
McMillan exploded in Week 11, and Vegas expects his strong play to continue in Week 12. 70+ yards is a high line, and not one that McMillan usually approaches. While the +124 odds aren't up there with some of the other high-end options with the same line, his stock is clearly on the rise.
TE Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys
Receiving Yards 40+ (+154)
As we've gotten deeper into the season and the Cowboys have gotten CeeDee Lamb back from injury, Ferguson has become very touchdown-dependent. DraftKings is taking notice of that and giving him a low line for receiving yards this week. To make matters worse, he is matched up with the Philadelphia Eagles, who have only allowed one TD to a tight end all season. This line suggests you may want to avoid Ferguson this week if possible.
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-0e06b43c57ceb063781f337e307e72d4.png "Mark Morales-Smith")
Mark Morales-Smith is a father of five, a former college football scout and semi-pro football player. Morales-Smith is a long-time competitive fantasy football player with well over a decade of professional writing experience at multiple high-level sites, including Sports Illustrated, FullTime Fantasy, FantasySP, and more.
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