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2025 Kentucky Derby Top Betting Moonshots Per Futures’ Odds

A deep dive into the 2025 Kentucky Derby's most intriguing moonshots highlights five under-the-radar contenders—each with the potential to deliver massive payouts and defy the odds on racing’s biggest stage.
Frank Taddeo|
Publisher and Tiztastic, trained by Steve Asmussen, work out Saturday, April 19, 2025, at Churchill Downs two weeks ahead of the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
Publisher and Tiztastic, trained by Steve Asmussen, work out Saturday, April 19, 2025, at Churchill Downs two weeks ahead of the 2025 Kentucky Derby. | Michael Clevenger/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Since 2005, “moonshots” such as Giacomo in 2005 (50-1), Mine That Bird in 2009 (50-1), and Rich Strike in 2022 (80-1) have defied the odds by pulling off shocking upsets in the Kentucky Derby. 

Aside from pulling off the outright upset, simply identifying moonshots who can hit the board, can turn small investments into financial bliss on exotic wagers. 

We start off our search for potential moonshots in this year’s Kentucky Derby field with a Steve Asmussen trainee who enters the Run for the Roses fresh off an impressive last-to-first win ($17.00) in the Louisiana Derby.

Tiztastic +2500

JOCKEY: Joel Rosario  / TRAINER: Steven Asmussen

RECORD: 8 starts: 3-1-2

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 99

RUNNING STYLE: Closer 

CAREER EARNINGS: $1,549,800

SI’s FULL BETTING PROFILE: Tiztastic

Tiztastic earned a career-best Equibase speed figure (99) for his from-the-clouds 2 and ¼ length win in the Louisiana Derby, beating Derby rival Chunk of Gold. Trainer Steve Asmussen’s 26 career starts in the Kentucky Derby is the most of any trainer without ever earning a first-place victory. Can this son of Tiz the Law finally help him end the drought? 

Oddsmakers currently have the son of Tiz the Law listed at odds of +2500, after opening at 90-1 in Pool 1 Futures back in October. 

East Avenue +2600

JOCKEY: Manny Franco  / TRAINER: Brendan Walsh

RECORD: 5 starts: 2-1-0

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 104

RUNNING STYLE: Pacesetter / Stalker

CAREER EARNINGS: $654,395

SI’s FULL BETTING PROFILE: East Avenue

East Avenue began his career on a high note, breaking his maiden at first at a distance of six-furlongs at Ellis Park. Following his maiden win, East Avenue remained undefeated by winning the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) by 5 1/4 lengths last October in a gate-to-wire victory.

However, the early winning streak ended with a 9th-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). Following a disappointing 10th-place finish in the Risen Star (G2), the son of Medaglia d’Oro hit the board for the first time in 2025, losing by a nose in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) to Derby contender Burnham Square. 

Oddsmakers have cooled off on East Avenue, now listing him at +2600, considerably higher than the 10-1 found in early Pool 1 Future pools. East Avenue, who fired a bullet four-furlong work in :47.60 on April 9 at Churchill, is expected to be among the pacesetters in the Kentucky Derby - the question is can he handle the distance?

American Promise +2900

JOCKEY: Nik Juarez  / TRAINER: D. Wayne Lukas

RECORD: 9 starts: 2-1-1

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 104

RUNNING STYLE: Stalker (prefers to press the pace)

CAREER EARNINGS: $444,874

SI’s FULL BETTING PROFILE: American Promise

89-year-old Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas will attempt to win his fifth Kentucky Derby with American Promise. 

The son of Justify, who finished out of the money in the Southwest Stakes (7th) and the Risen Star Stakes (5th), closed out his 2025 campaign with an eye-popping 7 ¾ lengths victory, setting the Colonial Downs track record of 1 ⅛ miles in 1:46.41.  

American Promise, who closed at odds of 103-1 in Pool 3 Derby Futures in January, gained the respect of oddsmakers after his win in the Risen Star, resulting in his odds being reduced to +2900. His solid 7-furlong morning work at 1:25.20 at Oaklawn on April 18 suggests he should be fresh and ready to roll on the first Saturday of May. 

Final Gambit +3300

JOCKEY: Luan Machado / TRAINER: Brad H. Cox

RECORD: 4 starts: 2-1-1

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 96

RUNNING STYLE: Stalker (Presser) 

CAREER EARNINGS: $520,639

SI’s FULL BETTING PROFILE: Final Gambit

Final Gambit is one of two Derby hopefuls for trainer Brad Cox who also enters Tappan Street in the 151st Run for the Roses. 

The late-emerging talent earned a career-best 96 Equibase speed figure from his commanding 3 ½ -length victory over Derby rival Flying Mohawk in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). 

Oddsmakers currently have Final Gambit listed as a moonshot at +3300 due to his unproven dirt form and limited racing experience. The late-emerging colt did not enter Derby Futures until Pool 6 earlier this month at odds of 40-1. The question is can a horse, who is trying dirt for the first time, come in the money, in arguably the most difficult race of his life?

Chunk of Gold +3500

JOCKEY: Jareth Loveberry / TRAINER: Ethan West

RECORD: 4 starts: 1-3-0

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 96

RUNNING STYLE: Closer

CAREER EARNINGS: $348,818

SI’s FULL BETTING PROFILE: Chunk of Gold

32-year old trainer Ethan West hopes to find the winner’s circle in his Kentucky Derby debut with talented closer Chunk of Gold.

The lightly-raced colt, who has never won a stakes race at any level, finds moonshot odds of +3500 in Derby Futures. The son of Preservationist has seen his 85-1 offering in Pool 5 wagering take a significant drop following his bullet five-furlong work in :59.60 at Turfway Park on April 12. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More Horse Racing News:

2025 Kentucky Derby Top Betting Longshots By The Odds

By The Odds: 2025 Kentucky Derby Top Betting Contenders

2025 Kentucky Derby Horse Profile & Betting Outlook: Journalism

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Frank Taddeo
FRANK TADDEO

Frank Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frank Taddeo primarily performs as On SI’s Senior Fantasy Analyst, providing his significant experience and resources in the sports world.

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