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2025 Kentucky Derby Top Betting Longshots By The Odds

Discover the top Kentucky Derby 2025 longshot contenders—like Tappan Street, Luxor Cafe, and Citizen Bull—who could offer huge betting value ahead of the post-position draw.
Frank Taddeo|
Kentucky Derby contender Tappan Street works Tuesday morning at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky April 22, 2025. Trainer is Louisville native Brad Cox. The horse will enter the Kentucky Derby off a victory in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 29 at Gulfstream Park. He currently ranks sixth on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard with 110.
Kentucky Derby contender Tappan Street works Tuesday morning at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky April 22, 2025. Trainer is Louisville native Brad Cox. The horse will enter the Kentucky Derby off a victory in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 29 at Gulfstream Park. He currently ranks sixth on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard with 110. | Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Identifying longshots who have the potential to upset the field can turn Kentucky Derby investments into an extremely lucrative endeavor. Prior to Saturday’s all-important post-position draw, OnSI Horse Racing takes a look at the top longshot targets in the Futures’ market. 

We start off our in-depth look with a lightly-raced closer for Brad Cox who is a runner-up finish away in the Holy Bull from entering the Run for the Roses undefeated.

Tappan Street +1400

JOCKEY: Luis Saez  / TRAINER: Brad Cox

RECORD: 3 starts: 2-1-0

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 96

RUNNING STYLE: Closer

CAREER EARNINGS: $643,400

SI’s FULL BETTING PROFILE: Tappan Street

Tappan’s Street extraordinary closing power was on full display in the Florida Derby, defeating Derby rival Sovereignty.  

Due to his limited experience, oddsmakers currently have him moderately power-ranked as the sixth overall betting choice in Derby Futures at odds of +1400. The son of Into Mischief, who was listed at 71-1 in Pool 3 Futures’ in January, could see his odds fall into the single-digits near post-time if he continues posting bullet morning workouts at Churchill. 

Luxor Cafe +1500

JOCKEY: Joao Moreira / TRAINER: Noriyuki Hori

RECORD: 6 starts: 4-1-0

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: n/a

RUNNING STYLE: Stalker (Presser) 

CAREER EARNINGS: $379,057

SI’s FULL BETTING PROFILE: Luxor Cafe

Luxor Cafe will be seeking to make history by becoming the first Japanese horse to win the Kentucky Derby. Historically, Japanese horses are 0-for-8 in the Run for the Roses. 

This son of American Pharoah followed-up his win in the Hyacinth Stakes with an eye-popping  5-lengths win in the Fukuryu Stakes - crushing the field with a final three-eighths in 36.51.

After closing at odds of 98-1 in Pool 5 Futures in the middle of March, the odds on Noriyuki Hori’s entrant crashed following his impressive win in the Fukuryu Stakes at the end of the month. Luxor Cafe will aim to be the second Japanese horse in as many years to hit the board in the first leg of the Triple Crown (Forever Young, 3rd place, 2024).

Citizen Bull +1700

JOCKEY: Martin Garcia  / TRAINER: Bob Baffert

RECORD: 6 starts: 4-0-1

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 107

RUNNING STYLE: Pacesetter / Presser

CAREER EARNINGS: $1,451,000

SI’s FULL BETTING PROFILE: Citizen Bull

The other of Baffert’s two prized entrants was the talk of the horse racing world after ripping off three consecutive wins in the American Pharoah Stakes (99), Breeders' Cup Juvenile (106), and Robert B. Lewis Stakes (107) - which displayed improving Equibase speed figures in each triumph.

However, the excitement quickly evaporated when the son of Into Mischief capped off his three-year-old campaign with a head-scratching 10-length defeat to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby.

The impressive gate-to-wire victory (16/1) in the 2024 Breeders' Cup Juvenile showed what Citizen Bull is capable of accomplishing when he gets loose on the front end. Horse racing bettors still find similar value (17-1) to his Pool 1 Futures’ opening odds of 25-1 posted back in October. 

Grande +1900

JOCKEY: John Velazquez  / TRAINER: Todd Pletcher

RECORD: 3 starts: 2-1-0

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 106

RUNNING STYLE: Stalker (Prefers to press the pace)

CAREER EARNINGS: $228,200

SI’s FULL BETTING PROFILE: Grande

This improving son of Curlin earned his first triple-digit Equibase speed figure (106) for his late-driving runner-up finish in the Wood Memorial Stakes behind Rodriguez. Top trainer Todd Pletcher, who will be in search of his third career Derby win, will send out a “live” runner who “sheets players” are strongly backing. 

Despite a dropoff from the 28-1 that was offered in Pool 3 Futures’ in January, solid longshot value still exists at his current odds of +1900.

Coal Battle +2500

JOCKEY: Juan Vargas  / TRAINER: Lonnie Briley

RECORD: 8 starts: 5-0-1

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 104

RUNNING STYLE: Closer / Mid-Pack

CAREER EARNINGS: $1,188,875

SI’s FULL BETTING PROFILE: Coal Battle

Coal Battle’s win in the Rebel Stakes, defeating Sandman, Publisher, and Tiztastic, earned him one the highest Equibase Speed figures (104) of any Derby entrant. However, his loss in the  Arkansas Derby, finishing behind Sandman and Publisher, has many doubting his stamina, which is required to win the Kentucky Derby. Despite winning four of his last five races, Lonnie Briley’s hope to win the prestigious race in his Derby debut rests on a talent oddsmakers have listed in the Futures’ market at +2500 - not far from the opening odds of +4600 offered in Pool 3 Futures’.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More Horse Racing News:

By The Odds: 2025 Kentucky Derby Top Betting Contenders

2025 Kentucky Derby Horse Profile & Betting Outlook: Publisher

2025 Kentucky Derby Horse Profile & Betting Outlook: Journalism

Published | Modified
Frank Taddeo
FRANK TADDEO

Frank Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frank Taddeo primarily performs as On SI’s Senior Fantasy Analyst, providing his significant experience and resources in the sports world.

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