Kentucky Derby Longshots Have Won Three Years in a Row Heading Into 2025

Finding success in the Kentucky Derby depends on a myriad of factors which include (but are not limited to) pedigree, recent form, stamina, post position, and race dynamics. However, one of the most predictive factors in handicapping the winner of the Run for the Roses involves projecting if dominant, early speed can hold up in the 1 ¼ mile test.

Following the post-position draw we learned that the race should witness significant early pace pressure from speed horses drawn in the inside and middle posts. Starting from the rail and working our way out, we find Bob Baffert’s Citizen Bull, who owns one of the top Equibase speed figures (107) in the field. The No. 1 post has historically proven to encounter major traffic issues in a 20-horse field, which severely dampens the hopes of those investing in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes winner.

The concentration of early speed is expected to come from Citizen Bull, if he can break sharply, as well as from his stable-mate Rodriguez from post No. 4. The son of Authentic, who owns the best Equibase speed figure in the field (111), will try to repeat his sire’s accomplishment of winning the Kentucky Derby at double-digit odds.

Top Equibase Speed Figures

DERBY ENTRANT	TOP FIGURE
Rodriguez	111
Journalism	110
Sovereignty	110
Citizen Bull	107
Grande	106
East Avenue	104
Burnham Square	104
Sandman	104
American Promise	102
Publisher	100
Neoequos	100
Tiztastic	99
Render Judgement	98
Owen Almighty	98
Flying Mohawk	97
Final Gambit	96
Chunk of Gold	96
Coal Battle	95
Admire Daytona	N/A
Luxor Cade	N/A

Broader View: Beyer, Time Form Us and Brisnet Speed Ratings

While I primarily use Equibase as my go-to handicapping tool, for the Triple Crown races and Breeders Cup, I prefer to expand my research to all of the major industry resources.

If you are looking for evidence as to why Journalism is the 3-1 morning-line favorite, look no further. While only possessing the second-best Equibase speed figure (110), the son of Curlin owns the top Beyer (108), the best Time Form US rating (122), and the highest Brisnet number (108).

PP - Kentucky Derby Horse	Beyer	Time Form US	Brisnet
No. 1 Citizen Bull	98	118	107
No. 2 Neoequos	91	116	101
No. 3 Final Gambit	90	118	101
No. 4 Rodriguez	101	120	105
No. 5 American Promise	95	119	105
No. 6 Admire Daytona	N/A	N/A	N/A
No. 7 Luxor Cafe	N/A	N/A	N/A
No. 8 Journalism	108	122	108
No. 9 Burnham Square	96	117	101
No. 10 Grande	97	116	101
No. 11 Flying Mohawk	85	114	97
No. 12 East Avenue	96	119	97
No. 13 Publisher	95	116	98
No. 14 Tiztastic	95	117	100
No. 15 Render Judgment	90	113	96
No. 16 Coal Battle	91	115	98
No. 17 Sandman	99	120	101
No. 18 Sovereignty	95	115	99
No. 19 Chunk of Gold	92	117	98
No. 20 Owen Almighty	92	118	97

Based on the figures obtained in Derby prep race races, Rodriguez is the only other entrant with a triple-digit Beyer (101) with Sandman just behind the top two, checking in at 99. The worst Beyer figure belongs to Whit Beckman’s trainee Flying Mohawk (85), who rates 23 points behind Journalism.

Per Time Form US ratings, Rodriguez (120) and Sandman (120) rank closest to Journalism, while Render Judgment owns the lowest rating (113) in the field.

According to Brisnet rankings, the second fastest figure behind Journalism (108) belongs to Citizen Bull (107), closely followed by Rodriguez (105) and American Promise (105). The worst Brisnet rating is co-shared by Flying Mohawk (97), East Avenue (97), and Owen Almighty (97).

Who Are The Fastest Horses In The 151st Kentucky Derby?

No matter which speed rating figure you prefer to use as your primary handicapping tool, all four systems appear to provide distinct tiers for the 2025 Kentucky Derby field. What we discover is that while Jounalism is the fastest proven talent, a double-digit longshot in Rodriguez is only a few points behind.

*We would be remiss if we didn't highlight that due to racing overseas, we do not have data on either Luxor Cafe nor Admire Daytona. While both talented colts figure to be prominently part of the early pace on May 3, Luxor Cafe profiles as the better of the duo, having defeated Admire Daytona twice in head-to-head prep races.