Shanghai Masters Semifinals Preview: Zverev and Medvedev Take On the Underdogs

The semifinals are set for the Shanghai Masters, headlined by Alexander Zverev, who clinched the year-end No. 1 ranking this week, playing No. 25 seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the first matchup on Saturday. In the second, 2019 champion Daniil Medvedev meets 20-year-old rising star Rafael Jodar, the youngest semifinalist in tournament history.

Alexander Zverev vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Zverev will be playing in his third Shanghai semifinal, his first since 2019, and his fifth Masters 1000 semifinal of the season. He enters as the No. 1 seed, fresh off clinching the year-end ATP No. 1 ranking this week. The two-time major champion has looked dominant for most of the season, and beat Alex de Minaur 6-4, 6-4 in the quarterfinal, hitting 10 aces and saving all five break points he faced to advance.

On the opposite baseline is Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who looks to be a serious underdog in this matchup. Davidovich Fokina advanced when Arthur Gea retired while trailing 4-1 in the first set of their quarterfinal, which gives him extra rest after two long matches earlier in the week. His run to the semifinals has looked promising so far, with wins over Frances Tiafoe and Hubert Hurkacz in the third and fourth rounds, respectively. However, history favors Zverev, who has won six of their seven total meetings.

Daniil Medvedev vs. Rafael Jodar

The second semifinal is the first-ever meeting between Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Jodar. Medvedev, the only former champion left in the field, beat Tommy Paul 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 in the quarterfinal. The veteran has been playing well recently, going 11-1 on the Asian swing, including a title in Hangzhou.

Jodar, meanwhile, is in search of his first Masters 1000 title. The 20-year-old Spanish phenomenon won all four matches in Shanghai after losing the first set, most recently 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, to Casper Ruud in the quarterfinal. Despite his young age, this is Jodar’s fifth tour-level semifinal this year, including two at Masters 1000 events. Medvedev, seeded No. 5 to Jodar’s No. 12, holds a slight edge in the matchup, but Jodar has proven he’s capable of rising to the occasion.

What’s at Stake

The stakes are slightly different for each semifinalist in Shanghai. For Zverev, the final will be a chance to claim his first Masters 1000 of the season, finishing a career-best season on a high note and adding momentum before Paris and the ATP Finals.

The two players with arguably the most at stake are Jodar and Medvedev, who are both still in the qualifying race for the ATP Finals. With Jannik Sinner out for the season, the last qualifying spot for the ATP Finals effectively goes to the ninth-ranked player in the Race, which is currently Jodar with 2,909 points. Alex de Minaur (2,880) and Novak Djokovic (2,840) are closely behind. Meanwhile, Medvedev is in sixth with 3,420 points after his quarterfinal win. A title in Shanghai would put him in a strong position for clinching an ATP Finals spot.

Lastly, Davidovich Fokina is chasing only his second-ever Masters 1000 final appearance and his first Masters 1000 title. As the No. 25 seed, being the biggest underdog in the field takes some pressure off the Spanish player, but it also gives him the chance to surprise everyone.

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