Opta Reveals Real Madrid's Chance Of Champions League Progress To The Semi-Final

Real Madrid were left shell-shocked yesterday, losing 3-0 in the Champions League quarter-final first leg against Arsenal. Three second-half goals, two of those extraordinary free-kicks from Declan Rice, mean that Los Blancos have a mountain to climb in the second leg.

Opta have dropped the chance of Real Madrid overturning the three goals and progressing to the competition's semi-final stage. They revealed that Carlo Ancelotti's side has a 4% chance of reaching the final four, the lowest total of the eight clubs. Aston Villa, Barcelona, Borussia Dortmund, and PSG are yet to play their first-leg games.

🚨 NEW UCL FAVOURITE 🚨

After their remarkable 3-0 win against Real Madrid, Arsenal are now the Opta supercomputer's favourites to win the Champions League.

-- 96% chance to progress to the semis
-- 54.2% chance to make the final
-- 28.4% to win the competition

Read more:
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) April 8, 2025

Los Blancos have just a 2.2% chance of reaching the final and 1.1% of winning the trophy. Thanks to the emphatic win, Arsenal has the highest chance to reach the final and win the 2024/25 competition.

MORE: Transcript: Carlo Ancelotti’s Post-Match Press Conference Following Arsenal vs Real Madrid

The low percentage chance of progression comes from all the statistics against Real Madrid. The last time Arsenal conceded three goals was 83 games ago, while the Spanish Champions have not played to their usual standard over the previous several months.

𝐀𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 famous win for Arsenal in the Champions League against Real Madrid 😤 pic.twitter.com/GN7xcdSKOK
— B/R Football (@brfootball) April 8, 2025

However, the Santiago Bernabeiu have seen some special nights, and if anything crazy were going to happen, it would be there. The second leg will take place on Wednesday, April 16.

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