Real Madrid's Percentage To Win La Liga Revealed By Opta, But Are They No.1?

The new La Liga season gets underway on August 15, with the top five games from the top tier in Spain. Real Madrid will be last on, as they face Osasuna on August 19, getting a more extended break after their Club World Cup campaign in the summer.

Current league champions Barcelona get their title defence underway on August 16, an away trip to Mallorca, Los Blancos' third opponent of the season.

Barcelona winning La Liga — IMAGO / NurPhoto

Opta have dropped its predictions for the 2025-26 La Liga season using data-led simulations. Real Madrid have a high chance of reclaiming the title, but are they ahead of rivals Barcelona?

Real Madrid Second Likeliest To Win La Liga

Opta believes Real Madrid is the second most likely to win the La Liga title this upcoming season, behind current holder Barcelona. The data gave Los Blancos a 32.1% chance of clinching another title, but behind the Catalan side, who have a 46.5% chance.

𝐋𝐚 𝐋𝐢𝐠𝐚 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬: 2025-26 📈

Who will win La Liga?
Who will qualify for the Champions League?
Which clubs are likeliest to be relegated?

We answer all the key questions with our La Liga 2025-26 season predictions via the Opta supercomputer.
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) August 12, 2025

There's a massive gap in percentage between the two who finished 1-2 during the 2024-25 season. Los Blancos finished just four points behind their rivals, and arguably had one of their worst seasons in the past several years.

Barca have added three players to the team this summer, with just goalkeeper Joan Garcia the only player who could break the starting lineup. Real Madrid have brought in four players, and returned Dani Carvajal and Eder Militao from long-term injuries. Xabi Alonso's team look much stronger on paper, so the gap in percentage seems too high for title-winning chances.

Atletico Madrid is the third likeliest, but sees a significant drop from the top two with an 11.7% chance. The next best are Villareal and Athletic Club, with others having a 0.9% chance or less. Real Madrid's opponents on the opening day have the highest chance of finishing eighth this season.

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