How many points will Sunderland need to achieve a play-off spot (and avoid relegation)?

As Sunderland head into the last 17 games of the season, let's do some number-crunching.

Author:
Callum Jacques
Publish date:
Feb 5, 2023 8:46 PM EST

You never know what is going to happen with Sunderland, do you. It has always been that way.

Sunderland currently sit two points off the Championship play-off places in ninth after a battling draw against fellow hopefuls Millwall.

The Black Cats are much in the mix for a play-off spot come the end of the season, but this is Sunderland, so it's impossible to feel completely safe from relegation too.

So, what is the total points tally the lads will need to achieve by the end of the season to be in with a chance of play-off football? Also, what points total will be needed for us all to be able to relax on the relegation front too?

First of all, the positive stuff - the play-off chase.

How many points for the play-offs?

Let's take a look at the current league table and how Sunderland fair against the teams around them, and also look at the points tally of the sixth placed team in the Championship over the last ten seasons.

Could a return to Wembley be on the cards? Image Credit: Steven Paston

West Bromwich Albion currently occupy sixth place in the league on 44 points from 29 games. However, seventh placed Millwall and eighth placed Blackburn have 43 points from 28 games, meaning they have a better points per game (PPG) than the Baggies.

Millwall and Blackburn’s PPG currently sits at 1.54. At their current PPG for the remainder of the season (18 games) they will pick up another 28 points (27.72) adding the 28 points to their 43 gives a total of 71 points for the sixth placed team.

Over the past ten years, the highest tally for a sixth-place finish in the Championship was 80 points (Fulham 16/17 season).

The lowest points tally for the sixth-place finish, meanwhile, was 68 points (Leicester 12/13 season). That makes the average points tally to obtain a play-off spot over the last ten years is 74 points (74.3).

That means that this season you are likely to need a below average points total to sneak into the top six.

Sixth place finishes over the past 10 seasons
Season	Team	Points
12/13	Leicester City	68
13/14	Brighton & Hove Albion	72
14/15	Ipswich Town	78
15/16	Sheffield Wednesday	74
16/17	Fulham	80
17/18	Derby County	75
18/19	Derby County	74
19/20	Swansea City	70
20/21	Bournemouth	77
21/22	Luton Town	75

Sunderland currently sit on 42 points after 29 games giving them a PPG of 1.45. If that form continues for the remainder of the season, they will finish on a points total of 67 points (66.65).

Based on their current PPG Sunderland would fall four points short of the play-offs based on Millwall and Blackburn’s PPG this season. The Black Cats would also fall seven points short of the play-offs based on the last ten seasons average.

Sunderland would need to achieve 74 points by the end of the season to give themselves a real shot at the play-offs, meaning they require 32 points from their remaining 17 games, for that to happen Sunderland’s PPG would have to rise considerably from 1.45 to 1.88.

Even to get to the 71 point mark, which may be enough, an improvement to 1.70 PPG in the final 17 games would be needed.

Not an easy feat, especially with one fit striker for the remainder of the season.

If not play-offs, are we safe?

So, while back-to-back play-off appearances may be too tall of a task for Sunderland, are they safe from the dreaded drop back to League One?

Lee Cattermole and George Honeyman when Sunderland were relegated in 2018. Image Credit: Simon Moore

In the last ten seasons, the team with the highest tally to be relegated was Peterborough in the 2012/13 season with 54 points.

Over the past ten years the average number of points needed for Championship safety is 45 points (44.9), three points more than Sunderland’s current points total.

Sunderland's current tally of 42 points would have been enough to stay up in five of the past ten seasons.

Huddersfield currently occupy the final relegation spot in 22nd on 27 points but are only two points behind 21^st placed Cardiff who have played two more games than Huddersfield.

Huddersfield’s current PPG is 0.96 would give them another 17 points (17.35) for the remainder of the season (18 games) to bring their final total to 44 points.

Sunderland would require just two points to match Huddersfield’s projected total, three points to meet the average of points needed over the last ten years, and 12 points to meet Peterborough’s record high tally.

Even if Sunderland’s PPG dropped to 0.8, which is what it was when they were relegated from the Championship in 2018, they would pick up another 14 points (13.6), leaving them on 56 points to finish the season.

Sunderland are therefore all but certain to remain in the Championship in their first season back, which is a testament to Tony Mowbray and his young squad, especially when you take in to account the amount of injury problems.

Had we been offered that the day after promotion last season, we all probably would have taken it.

A play-off push looks a bit of a long-shot now, though. You can't rule it out, but it's just statistically unlikely at this point.

How many points for the play-offs?

If not play-offs, are we safe?

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