The crucial Everton decision that prevented Ellis Simms from returning to Sunderland

January is, without doubt, the most volatile time of the year in football. Sunderland are no exception to that.

This year was actually quite calm for the most part, though. Deals took a while to develop, but they trickled through with good regularity in the final week of the window. Then Fulham happened.

That just goes to show that you can plan as much as you want, but sometimes the luck just turns against you. Had Sunderland been going into February with Ross Stewart and Joe Gelhardt to call upon, the Black Cats would have had two of the most talented strikers in the division.

It still probably would have been a striker short, but few clubs in the Championship could have boasted a pair of more talented centre-forwards.

The injury to Ross Stewart dramatically changed that positive outlook, though. Yes, Sunderland were looking for a third striker before that day at Craven Cottage, but it was going to be a youngster, someone to back up Gelhardt and Stewart whilst developing, rather than stepping up and taking the responsibility themselves.

At that point, Simms was no longer part of the plan. Sunderland didn’t feel they could wait for an Everton decision, especially after Frank Lampard was sacked, and firmed up their interest in Gelhardt instead. Things obviously changed.

Sunderland spent much of deadline day hoping for dominoes to fall in their favour to allow Simms to return. Saying ‘go out and find a good striker and get him’ is easy. Actually doing it is hard. It’s even harder in January, as Sunderland found out with Will Grigg.

January, after all, is the month for dominoes. One player goes somewhere which makes another player available, who is signed by someone else as a replacement for the striker target you have… that kind of thing.

The truth is, though, there was already a dominoes chain in motion that was working against Sunderland getting Simms back, and it started with Arnaut Danjuma.

The Dutchman was the man Everton saw as a top striker target. They had put in an awful lot of work into signing the Villarreal man and he was keen to sign for the Merseyside club. Frank Lampard was key to those talks, and Danjuma wanted to play for him. He even arrived in England for talks and to complete the deal.

In fact, he even told reporters, broadcast on Sky Sports: "I will do absolutely everything I can to keep Everton in this League.”

Then, after a 2-0 defeat to West Ham, the axe fell on Lampard. Suddenly Danjuma was left with the prospect of signing for a crisis club in the relegation zone with no coach, and the one they had just sacked was the biggest reason he wanted to join them. He joined Tottenham instead, calling it a 'no-brainer.'

That left Everton reeling and scratching around for other targets, and getting any one of them would have seen Simms sent back to a grateful Sunderland. They were not prepared, though. They had not done the groundwork on other deals, and it never happened. That's kind of how Everton are run these days...

You could argue that Sunderland should have been better prepared for a late push for a new first-team striker. However, Stewart’s injury put them in a bad position and, although alternative deals were explored, terms were prohibitive as Sunderland have a careful plan to scale up their wage structure slowly.

The result, of course, is Sunderland facing 18 Championship games with just one striker, but it was that or risk getting stung Will Grigg style. They probably made the right call, even if the overall situation was an ultimately deflating one.

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